It felt as if one game was omitted when the NFL announced its schedule for the coming season.
Jan. 28, 2024, NFC Championship Game: TBD at Philadelphia Eagles.
Yes, it looks like that much of a formality that the loaded Eagles will be vying for a return trip to the Super Bowl. Exactly the opposite of the wide-open AFC race among about six powers balanced by Hall of Fame-track quarterbacks.
So, which team might be the second-best in the NFC? And how much does it even matter?
To borrow from the NBA, LeBron James’ teams were a near-certainty to make the Finals in the 2010s — he won eight straight Eastern Conference titles with the Cavaliers and Heat — and few people can name the runner-up punching bags along the way. The Eagles might just roll an opponent into oblivion.
Post Sports+ breaks down six contenders to be the NFC’s second-best team, and shares the replies from three NFL sources who were asked to name the Eagles’ biggest intra-conference threat.
San Francisco 49ers
Biggest strength: A case could be made that running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, defensive end Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and special-teamer George Odum each are best or second-best at their positions in the league. Receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and defensive tackle Arik Armstead are not far behind the elite. In other words, there are game-changers everywhere.
The 49ers’ George Kittle has arguably become the NFL’s top receiving tight end no matter who is throwing him the ball.Getty ImagesBiggest concern: Who is the quarterback? Trey Lance, who has thrown 420 passes since high school in 2017? Brock Purdy, who is slowly rehabbing from elbow surgery? Sam Darnold, who is 21-34 in his career as a starter? Belief around the NFL is Purdy — the last pick in the 2022 draft — is the in-house favorite over the two former No. 3 overall picks. The 49ers started to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo after 2021 because a loaded roster was being held back by quarterback. And yet here we are.
Seattle Seahawks
Biggest strength: Considering that head coach Pete Carroll and former quarterback Russell Wilson reportedly feuded over Carroll’s desire to be more run-oriented, it’s odd that the Seahawks boast one of the most dangerous passing attacks. Geno Smith was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded passer on 20-plus yard throws even before the Seahawks added first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba to play in the slot. With D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, he will form maybe the NFL’s best quick-strike receiver trio.
Biggest concern: It wouldn’t be concerning that the defensive tackle tandem (Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson) for the league’s No. 26-ranked rushing defense (4.9 yards per carry) left for the Jets if they had been replaced by upgrades. But the Seahawks thought differently, and are counting on others to shut off running lanes, as seen by their choice to spend on a reunion with linebacker Bobby Wagner, fellow inside linebacker Devin Bush and defensive ends Jarran Reed and Dremont Jones. Who protects the defense’s gut?
Dallas Cowboys
Biggest strength: An embarrassment of pass-rushing riches is led by Micah Parsons (13.5 sacks last season), and includes Dorrance Amstrong, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler, all of whom had at least six. Safety Donovan Wilson is a blitzing terror, and rookie first-round pick Mazi Smith should finally correct a years-long weakness of generating interior pressure. The Cowboys led the NFL in pressure percentage (25.6) and finished third in sacks (54) last season.
No quarterback wants to look across the line of scrimmage and see the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons.Getty ImagesBiggest concern: Trading for receiver Brandin Cooks and cornerback Stephon Gilmore addressed two big needs. The offensive line remains a reshuffled work in progress, however. Is Tyron Smith — who hasn’t played more than 11 games in a season since 2019 — going to be at his traditional left tackle spot or at right tackle? Tyler Smith played left tackle as a rookie, but could move to guard. Right tackle Terrence Steele is recovering from a torn ACL. Only Zach Martin and Tyler Biadasz are reliable at this point.
New York Giants
Biggest strength: Head coach Brian Daboll, offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale showed an ability to adjust game plans and play calls from week to week to exploit opponent-specific weaknesses. No jamming square pegs into round holes, which is the undoing of so many coaches. Imagine what these three can do now that they have more talent at their disposal — especially at receiver and cornerback — than they did a year ago.
Biggest concern: Saquon Barkley is unsigned and could be forced to choose between playing on the $10.1 million franchise tag or sitting out training camp and possibly games if contract talks remain stalled. What impact could that missed time have on his health? On team chemistry? For all the improvement that Daniel Jones made as a runner and ball protector last season, and all the weapons added in the passing attack, Barkley (4.7 yards per touch) is still the best offensive playmaker.
Detroit Lions
Biggest strength: The offensive line’s starting five — Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Penei Sewell — remains intact after allowing just 24 sacks (second-fewest). A smashmouth team has a new running back who fits the part: David Montgomery takes over for Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns last season. The line’s depth could use an upgrade, but that is nitpicky in an Aaron Rodgers-less NFC North.
Penei Sewell (No. 58) and Halapoulivaati Vaitai help anchor an offensive line that excels in pass protection and run blocking.Getty ImagesBiggest concern: How will a young team handle expectations and prosperity? The league crowned the Lions — who went 8-2 after Halloween last season — as darlings by pitting them against the Chiefs for the stand-alone season opener. The quarterback (Jared Goff) has been there, done that with the Rams. So has the leader of a retooled secondary (Chauncey Gardner-Johnson) with the Eagles. Receiver Jameson Williams’ six-game gambling suspension, though, weakened an already shallow position.
Minnesota Vikings
Biggest strength: The Vikings won an NFL-record 11 one-score games last season. Some say that luck is about to even out, but what if head coach Kevin O’Connell showed in his first year a knack for managing the clock and navigating field position? Kirk Cousins-Dalvin Cook-Justin Jefferson still was one of the NFL’s best trios, so why the rush to dump Cook? With him, they could have jumped from the No. 3 seed to No. 2.
Biggest concern: After the Vikings allowed the second-most passing yards (4,515) last season and were exposed by the Giants’ subpar passing attack in the playoffs, acquiring cornerback help should have been a top priority. Adding Byron Murphy while losing Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley doesn’t qualify as the necessary overhaul. Instead the ax fell on defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, and successor Brian Flores is expected to patch holes with smoke and mirrors.
Ask the experts
Former general manager: “The only NFC team whose Kool-Aid I could drink is San Francisco. And, yes, that’s with whoever their quarterback is.”
Executive: “It’s a tough one: The 49ers if Lance or Purdy can stay healthy, or the Cowboys should be solid. I don’t trust the Giants, Lions, Commanders, Vikings or Saints yet. [Others] are not close yet.”
Coach: “The 49ers are the second-best team right now because they are so talented that average or slightly below-average quarterback play could put them in the Super Bowl. After the 49ers, I think Seattle is poised to make a run. Dallas will be strong. And I’d like to say Detroit, but I need to see more from their defense. The NFC is not great.”
Broken (pay) scale
Ryan Tannehill’s $36.6 million salary-cap hit this season is a reflection more of his willingness to help the Titans sign Julio Jones than of his value at the quarterback position.Getty ImagesThe reigning MVP carries the biggest salary-cap charge in the NFL in 2023. Perfectly logical for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, right?
But if you expected a continuation of skill being commensurate with money further down the list, think again. It’s actually pretty common for good — not great — players to sneak into the conversation.
A cap hit — made up of a player’s salary and bonuses in a given year — is different from the annual cash flow on a contract. Newer deals always lead in terms of cash flow — no one is close to newly re-signed Lamar Jackson’s $80 million cash in 2023 — because a signing bonus is paid up front but prorated over the life of a contract (up to five years) for salary-cap accounting.
Here are the top 10 salary cap hits in 2023, according to Spotrac:
1. QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, $39.7M
2. QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans, $36.6M
3. DT Leonard Williams, Giants, $32.3M
4. QB Jared Goff, Lions, $31.0M
5. OLB T.J. Watt, Steelers, $29.4M
6. DE Myles Garrett, Browns, $29.2M
7. OT Jake Matthews, Falcons, $28.4M
8. DT Chris Jones, Chiefs, $28.3M
9. WR Cooper Kupp, Rams, $27.8M
10. OT Trent Williams, 49ers, $27.2M
If you remove the three quarterbacks plus Dak Prescott (No. 11 overall at $26.8M), the non-quarterback top 10 is rounded out by Texans OT Laremy Tunsil ($26.6M), Rams DT Aaron Donald ($26M) and 49ers DE Arik Armstead ($23.9M). It’s no surprise that offensive tackle and pass rusher widely are considered the next-most important positions after quarterback.
The Giants complicated their salary-cap situation to accommodate Leonard Williams’ contract.Bill Kostroun for the NY PostTannehill, Williams, Goff and Matthews jump off the page as “don’t belong.” Goff is the only one of the four with more than one Pro Bowl selection (three).
Why is each player on the list? In a word: leverage.
Tannehill, who ranked No. 11 in the NFL in quarterback rating last season, is the unlikely No. 2 because he restructured his contract in 2021 to create $18 million of room for the failed Julio Jones experiment. The Titans added two voidable years to the end of Tannehill’s contract, increased the dead-cap charge if he were released and essentially secured his roster spot in this final year of his original four-year, $118 million contract that was supposed to have an out after three seasons.
Williams’ agents ran a master class in negotiation after then-Giants general manager Dave Gettleman backed himself into a corner by trading for the underachieving pending free agent in the middle of a lost 2019 season. Franchise-tagged off of a season with a half-sack, Williams timed the best year of his career (11.5 sacks) entering free agency, was tagged a second time to raise the baseline price and then signed a three-year, $63 million contract. The Giants had to restructure the deal to create operating cap space in 2022, adding a voidable year, and turned his $26.3 million cap hit into the largest for a non-quarterback in the league ($32.3 million).
Goff originally signed his four-year, $134 million contract with the Rams after leading them to the Super Bowl. But he was traded to the Lions, who showed confidence in Goff before his first snap with the team by restructuring his deal and strengthening their commitment beyond 2022, when they could have moved on if the trade really was just about moving on from Matthew Stafford. The Lions converted $20 million of Goff’s $25.65 million salary in 2021 into a signing bonus, which raised his salary-cap hit to one of the NFL’s highest in 2022 and ’23. It was a risk that paid off when Goff had one of his best performances last season (No. 7 in quarterback rating).
The Lions’ willingness to commit to Jared Goff as their long-term quarterback results in the NFL’s fourth-highest salary-cap hit this season.Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesMatthews signed a three-year, $55 million extension in March 2022, when he had two years remaining on his deal. Why? The Falcons were about to enter salary-cap hell by trading quarterback Matt Ryan and taking a historic $40.5 million dead-cap charge. Matthews, who has played almost every offensive snap during a nine-year career with the Falcons, could have had an even bigger cap charge, but the Falcons accelerated $7 million of his 2023 roster bonus into 2022, per ESPN.
Now is the time of year when a team might ask a relatively overpaid player like one of those four to take a pay cut, knowing the free-agent market has dried up and the player could struggle to find similar money elsewhere if he balks at the pay cut. But that is not a good practice for a front office gaining respect around the locker room and with an agent.
Stay tuned.
The curse of Tom Brady?
Tom Brady’s path of destruction wasn’t limited to the losers during his NFL-record 286 victories.
Brady also has shown a strange knack for leaving teams who get too close to him in quarterback limbo. The Raiders are the latest case in point.
Since Brady left New England in free agency after the 2019 season, the Patriots have started Cam Newton (7-8), Brian Hoyer (0-2), Mac Jones (16-15) and Bailey Zappe (2-0) in a quarterback carousel with no end in sight.
The Buccaneers were ill-prepared for Brady’s retirement after last season, and now will turn to either four-team journeyman Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask (nine career passes) as his replacement.
Tom Brady appears more intent on being a part of Mark Davis’ ownership group with the Raiders than leading their offense.Getty ImagesA few other teams who traveled too close to the sun also got burnt.
The Dolphins were docked a first-round pick in 2023 and a third-round pick in 2024 as part of the penalty for twice tampering with Brady, per an NFL investigation. The first illegal contact happened in Aug. 2019, when he was with the Patriots, and the second took place Dec. 2021, when he was with the Buccaneers. Owner Stephen Ross was suspended for the first six weeks of the 2022 regular season and fined $1.5 million.
As the Dolphins move forward with a “cheater” reputation — hey, the Patriots aren’t the only ones! — they also face quarterback uncertainty related to the health and future of Tua Tagovailoa, who admittedly considered retirement after suffering too many concussions before his 25th birthday.
The Raiders now appear to be another full-fledged mess touched by the potentially radioactive GOAT.
League sources believe the Raiders were gearing up to pursue Brady as a free agent this offseason and felt confident about an ability to sign him given his relationship with head coach Josh McDaniels. When Brady surprisingly retired instead, the Raiders pivoted to another McDaniels protégé, Jimmy Garoppolo.
Now a Brady storyline and a Garoppolo storyline are converging on the Raiders just like they did a decade ago: Garoppolo failed his free-agent entry physical exam in March because of a foot injury, and Brady is expected to join the Raiders as a minority owner.
In a soap-opera-esque twist, a decade after Brady was forced to fend off a young Garoppolo potentially expediting his departure from the Patriots, Garoppolo must be wary about Brady unretiring to replace him as quarterback.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s foot surgery in March is expected to keep him sidelined until training camp, which has led to speculation his former Patriots teammate turned team owner might make for a good fill-in.Getty ImagesBrady sounds adamant that he will not play again. His future is in ownership and broadcasting.
The last team Brady “owned,” the Jets, have been haunted for 23 years for not listening to former scout Jesse Kaye, who urged them to draft Brady. Kaye died earlier this week, before seeing what the Jets look like with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Perhaps the only team that survived a close encounter with Brady to experience a positive outlook is the Chargers, who reportedly finished as the runner-up in the 2020 Brady free agent sweepstakes.
Their backup plan — drafting 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert — is working out just fine … except for the not-so-minor issue of having almost no fan base in Los Angeles.
