Midterm Elections 2022: Which Senate, House Seats Can Republicans Or Democrats Flip?

Midterm Elections 2022: Which Senate, House Seats Can Republicans Or Democrats Flip?

The midterm elections are 295 days away and Democrats and Republicans are both fighting for a stronger presence in the House and Senate.

There is an even split in the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote.

Republicans have a decent shot at regaining the Senate on Nov. 8, as Democrat incumbents in swing states face tough tests.

Democrats Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire are looking to hold on to their seats, while Republican incumbents seeking reelection include Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Marco Rubio in Florida.


President Joe Biden narrowly won Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin in 2020.

But Democrats can hold the majority by winning open seats. Only one Democrat — Patrick Leahy of Vermont —  won't seek reelection. Vermont is expected to elect a Democrat to replace the longtime senator. 

Meanwhile, five Senate Republicans have announced plans to retire: Rob Portman of Ohio, Richard Burr of North Carolina, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Richard Shelby of Alabama, and Roy Blunt of Missouri. Ohio and Pennsylvania both have a Democratic senator, while North Carolina has shown signs of becoming more of a swing state. Alabama and Missouri are both solid red states.

The House is more unclear with Democrats holding a 221-212 edge. Republicans would only need to flip six seats to gain the majority.

There are about 10 House seats that can flip, with Republicans in a more favorable position than Democrats. Here's an early look.

Iowa's 3rd district: Democrat Cindy Axne is serving her second term in a district Donald Trump narrowly won in 2020.

Maine's 2nd district: Trump defeated Biden claiming 52.3%-44.8%, which may mean Democrat incumbent Jared Golden is in for a tight battle. 

Nevada's 3rd district: Democrat Susie Lee is seeking to hold on to her seat in a district Biden carried 49.1%-48.9% and has been redrawn.

North Carolina's 2nd district: Democrat G.K. Butterfield is retiring and redistricting may make it difficult for Democrats to hold this seat.

Ohio's 9th district: Democrat Marcy Kaptur is serving her 20th term in Congress but faces a tougher test due to redistricting. 

Ohio's 1st district: Republican Steve Chabot first entered the House in 1994 and has a good shot of reelection due to a favorable map.

Ohio's 13th district: This Cleveland-area seat is open after Republican Anthony Gonzalez retired after voting to impeach Trump in the second impeachment trial.

Oregon's 4th district: Democrat Peter DeFazio is retiring in a district that voted for Biden over Trump, 51%-47%.

Texas' 15th district: Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is running for reelection in a district dominated by Hispanic voters but has been trending more to Republicans.

Nebraska's 2nd district: Republican Don Bacon won his past two elections despite recent gains from Democrats. Biden defeated Trump, 52%-46%.