INGLEWOOD, Calif. — The Post’s Zach Braziller breaks down the national championship game (Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) between No. 1 Georgia and No. 3 TCU at SoFi Stadium.
Matchups
When Georgia has the ball
Georgia’s offense is known for its physicality, but it was more dynamic this season, ranked 15th in passing and 23rd in rushing. That was apparent in the come-from-behind win over Ohio State, as Stetson Bennett rallied the Bulldogs from 14 points down in the final 10:14 and threw for 190 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. When healthy, and Georgia’s offense appears to be getting there, it can hurt you in so many ways. It can run the ball down your throat, utilize a dynamic two tight-end set with Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington, or stretch the field now that Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey have gotten over injuries. TCU’s bend-but-don’t-break defense, which allows nearly 400 yards per game, will be facing its stiffest test to date.
Edge: Georgia
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett celebrates after a win over Ohio State on Dec. 31, 2022.USA TODAY SportsWhen TCU has the ball
It will be an electric offense against a suffocating defense, TCU’s fourth-ranked scoring attack against Georgia’s No. 5 scoring defense. While the Horned Frogs haven’t seen a defense quite as talented and explosive as this one, it did shred strong units belonging to Michigan, Iowa State, Texas and Kansas State, all of them ranked in the top 30. The big question is whether star running back Kendre Miller (right MCL sprain) will be able to play, and if he is available, how effective can he be? TCU’s strength is in its balance, and if it is forced to be one-dimensional, that would play into Georgia’s hands. But this defense, particularly the shaky secondary, isn’t impenetrable. It just allowed 41 points and 467 yards of offense to shorthanded Ohio State after giving up 30 points to LSU in the SEC title game.
Edge: Even
Special teams
TCU receiver Derius Davis can change the game. Ranked fourth in the country with two touchdowns as a punt returner, he gives the Horned Frogs a decided advantage in the return game. The two kickers, Georgia’s Jack Podlesny and TCU’s Griffin Kell, only missed a combined seven kicks this year in 49 attempts, although Kell did miss two extra points. Podlesny also missed two kicks in the Peach Bowl, which is worth monitoring.
Edge: TCU
TCU quarterback Max Duggan throws a pass during a practice before the college football championship on Jan. 7, 2023.USA TODAY SportsCoaching
Kirby Smart saw a record 15 Georgia players get drafted last April and has his team back in the title game, even one-upping last year’s group by arriving without a loss. His numbers in his first seven seasons at Georgia (one national title, an 80-15 record and two SEC crowns) are similar to mentor Nick Saban’s first seven years at Alabama. Yet, what Sonny Dykes has accomplished this year at TCU is just as impressive, inheriting a program coming off a 5-7 season that was picked to finish seventh in the Big 12, and leading it all the way to the final game of the season. Still, Dykes has never been here before, and experience matters. Smart by an eyelash.
Edge: Georgia
Players who could decide the game (non-quarterbacks)
DL Jalen Carter, Georgia
Expect to see an angry Carter on Monday night, or in the very least, a motivated one. He was a non-factor in the Peach Bowl, producing just one tackle. Another no-show from the 6-foot-3, 300-pound monster feels about as likely as the highly regarded Carter falling out of the first round of draft.
Georgia’s Jalen Carter (88) pursues Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) during the Peach Bowl on Dec. 31, 2022.Getty ImagesWR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. torched Georgia, catching five passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns, before suffering a head injury late in the third quarter of the Peach Bowl, and the 6-foot-4 Johnston could do the same. The Bulldogs’ secondary is a weakness — the unit is ranked 65th nationally against the pass — and Johnston is arguably the No. 1 draft-eligible receiver in the sport.
RB Kenny McIntosh, Georgia
The do-it-all senior gets overlooked, somewhat forgotten on the Georgia offense after Bennett and Bowers. But he’s just as important. He leads the Bulldogs in rushing yards and is one of their top receivers, producing 12 touchdowns and 1,284 total yards on 184 touches this year. He can punish you with his speed and his power, by running in between the tackles or out wide as a receiver. Remember, TCU was fortunate not to have to deal with star Michigan running back Blake Corum due to injury, and it still allowed 186 rushing yards.
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Prediction
The clock will strike midnight on Cinderella on Monday night. Georgia won’t play another ‘C’ game like it did against Ohio State and TCU will be unable to match its brilliant performance against Michigan. The Bulldogs’ front seven dominates early and the backups play most of the fourth quarter in this one-sided championship game.
Georgia 45, TCU 17
