The Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks close out their weekend series on Sunday. Minnesota is projected to start Chris Archer (1-2, 3.35 ERA) with the Diamondbacks turning to Merrill Kelly.
Archer has been one of MLB’s tough-luck pitchers through the first two months. Despite posting a record of only 1-2, Archer has allowed two runs or less in nine of 11 starts this season. The right-hander has been particularly strong in his last three outings, giving up just nine hits and three runs over 14 innings of work.
Kelly has also pitched better than his 5-4 record indicates, but he was roughed up by the Reds in his last start, giving up eight hits and five runs over five innings. Arizona is 2-5 in Kelly’s past seven starts, with the wins coming over the lowly Reds and Pirates.
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The Twins have been crushing right-handed pitching lately. Heading into Saturday, Minnesota was batting .311 and averaging just under seven runs in its last 10 games against right handers.
On the flip side, Arizona was hitting just .200 against righties over its last 10 and now must face a hot hand in Archer. The one negative with Archer is he rarely goes past five innings and the Twins’ bullpen has struggled with giving up leads. Entering Saturday, Minnesota’s relievers had allowed the most home runs and third-most walks in the AL. For those reasons, I’m taking the Twins -0.5 on the first five innings line in a game in which I expect Archer to continue to pitch well.
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Twins +0.5 First 5 Innings (-155) via BetMGM
