Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 prediction: Rainout changes everything

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For a five-game series, the ALDS between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians has featured plenty of twists and turns. The Pinstripes jumped ahead with a terrific Game 1 performance, then the Guardians clawed their way to a 2-1 series lead with a pair of comebacks after Game 2 was postponed.

Somewhere in there Yankees manager Aaron Boone came under scrutiny for his bullpen usage as he opted not to use Clay Holmes with the Yankees ahead in the bottom of the ninth in Game 3. Boone did use Holmes in Game 4, which was a stirring Yankee win behind a gutsy start from Gerrit Cole.

The series shifted back to the Bronx on Monday night, but Mother Nature got involved again. The MLB seemed hellbent on getting the game in, but finally — after hours without any sort of hard update — relented and pushed the win-or-go-home contest to Tuesday afternoon.

When the dust had finally settled, the Yankees were installed as -180 favorites, with Nestor Cortes set to start on three day’s rest. The Guardians, who will roll out Aaron Civale, are +152 underdogs, per FanDuel. The Over/Under is set at seven runs.

Guardians vs. Yankees Game 5 prediction

With the extra day between games, the Yankees have opted to start Cortes on short rest instead of Jameson Taillon. The market thinks the switch is a boost for the Bombers, as they were bouncing between -155 and -165 on Monday but now are sitting at -180.

Perhaps the more notable impact on the game is that the Yankees’ bullpen now gets an extra day of rest. Had the two teams played on Monday, Boone would have had to work around a depleted group of relievers. Wandy Peralta had pitched three days in a row, while Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, Lou Trivino, and Clarke Schmidt each pitched on three of the last four days.

Nestor CortesGetty Images

The Guardians’ bullpen, meanwhile, was set up well for the regularly-scheduled Game 5. Cleveland had Emmanuel Clase, Trevor Stephan, and James Karinchak all ready and rested for Monday, and while the extra day of rest won’t hurt, it definitely was a reprieve for the Yankee relievers.

After a steady regular season that saw him pitch to a 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 158.1 innings of work. Cortes’ StatCast profile is also terrific as he ranks in the 90th percentile in xwOBA, 75th percentile in hard hit rate, 85th percentile in expected batting average and 81st percentile in barrel rate.

Cortes uncharacteristically struggled with his command in Game 2, and it’s hard to be sure how he will handle pitching on short rest, but the big-picture numbers are terrific.

It’s likely that Cortes will be on a pretty short leash on Tuesday, and the Yankees could end up piggybacking him with Taillon, but with the extra rest, we could see Boone go straight from Cortes to his high-leverage relievers.

Civale is the starter, but it’s possible he serves more as an opener. In a vacuum, there’s no question that the Yankees have the edge in starting pitching, but it seems likely that Cleveland will just ask Civale to get through the order once.

Civale pitched to a 4.92 ERA on the season and does have issues keeping the ball in the park (1.30 HR/9), but his numbers the first time through the order are a little more encouraging. Civale logged a 2.98 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 28.4% strikeout rate when he was going through the order for the first time this season (45 1/3 inning sample).

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Gabriel Arias #8 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts after striking out against the New York YankeesGetty Images

If Civale runs into trouble, or Terry Francona decides to pull a late swap, we could end up seeing Shane Bieber play a pretty significant role in this game. Civale, Bieber and the well-rested, terrific Cleveland bullpen should give Francona plenty of flexibility.

Even though the Guardians bullpen sets up well, the Yankees’ offense should be able to do some damage to Civale, who has uninspiring numbers this season and could be in trouble in a homer-happy ballpark. Should the Yankees get ahead early, that should put the game on a script for the Pinstripes and allow them to get the separation needed before the Cleveland bullpen becomes a major factor. Despite the fact that the Guardians pulled off a couple of comebacks in this series, their offense isn’t built to make up deficits, even if the Yankees’ bullpen is not a dominant bunch.

A play on the Yankees to cover the F5 inning runline seems like a savvy bet, but there does seem to be value backing the Bombers in a blowout on Tuesday afternoon.

Yankees vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 pick

Yankees -2.5 runs (+205, FanDuel)