Having shared our statistical modeling strategy for the 2022 Travelers Championship, we can now begin to share our best bets.
We begin as always with our top derivative bets at TPC River Highlands. This week, I have identified three separate markets — one top-10, one top-30 and one top-40 — that provide prospective bettors good value based both on the statistical model and overall course history.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the selections. All odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Claim a Risk-Free First Bet up to $1,000
New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.
Up To $1500 Risk Free First Bet
New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet $50 Get $200 in Free Bets
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply
100% First Deposit Match up to $250 with promo code NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. NY, NJ, MI, AZ, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player needs to make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full T&C apply.
Bet $5, Get $200 in free bets – Win or Lose
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&C apply
Bet $20, Get $100 in Free Bets
21+. New customers only. CO & VA Only. T&Cs apply.
Risk Free Bet Up to $1000 + One Free Month of Fubo TV
New users only, 21 or older. Available in IA, AZ only. Full T&C apply.
Bet $1 Get $200 in Bet Credits with NYP365
21+. New customers only. NJ only. Full T&C apply.
Bet $20, Get $100 in Free Bets
21+ & New Customers only. NJ & PA only. Full T&Cs apply.
Get a $250 First Deposit Match
21+, New Customers Only. NJ and CT only. Full T&Cs apply.
Best Bet #1 – Patrick Cantlay Top-10 Finish (+170)
Recent performances have proven strong for Cantlay, who is arriving at TPC River Highlands of a T-14th finish at the U.S. Open.
Including that finish at The Country Club, Cantlay has now finished no worse than 14th in his last three events in which he’s made the cut. Prior to last week’s finish, Cantlay finished 3rd at The Memorial on the heels of a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Plus, he was second at the RBC Heritage and, dating back to this year’s American Express, has five top-10 finishes in 10 starts.
Cantlay is also a player that tends to excel on Pete Dye designs. In his last 24 rounds on such tracks, Cantlay ranks first in the field in SG: total and is seventh in the field in SG: Ball Striking. Cantlay, the 2021 FedEx Cup champion, also has finished no worse than 15th in any of his last four starts at the Travelers.
Patrick CantlayGetty ImagesFurther, Cantlay rates out quite well in my statistical model. He’s first overall in the field in my 24-round projection, which is largely driven by his outputs in both SG: Ball Striking (6th), birdies or better gained (6th) and SG: Par 4’s (8th).
Cantlay also possesses a strong all-around game that will be rewarded at TPC River Highlands. He’s ninth in the field in GIRs gained, 12th in SG: around the green and 21st in sand saves, so he knows how to escape trouble.
For those reasons, I would play Cantlay at +130 or better for a top-10 finish at The Travelers.
Best Bet #2 – Seamus Power Top-30 Finish (+140)
Much like Cantlay, Power arrives at the Travelers in strong form.
Over his last four events, the Irishman has produced three top-20 finishes to go along with a single missed cut. Dating back to the Players Championship, Power has made the cut in five of seven events and finished no worse than 33rd in those five outings. Plus, Power has a good course history at TPC River Highlands as he was tied for 19th at this event last year.
And, even though he only rates 29th in SG: total over his last 24 rounds on Dye designs, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Power reached the quarterfinals at this year’s Dell Match Play and finished tied for fifth at the Zurich Classic, both of which took place at Dye courses that correlate closer with TPC River Highlands.
Seamus PowerGetty ImagesPower is also a player that rates out very well in my statistical model. Over his last 24 rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, he ranks 11th overall in the field. Even though he’s 64th in SG: Ball Striking, there are other positives to consider. He ranks out 11th in the field in GIRs gained, third in birdies or better gained and first in SG: Par 4’s.
It’s also worth noting Power has gained strokes on approach in three straight events and has gained around the green in three of his last four. For all those reasons, I believe Power is primed for another strong finish and would play him up at +130 or better.
Check out the best sports betting sites and apps
Best Bet #3 – Sepp Straka Top-40 Finish (+200)
Recent results have not been kind to Straka, who missed the cut at the U.S. Open after finishing no better than 45th in three prior events.
However, I’m willing to buy low on a player that both models out well at the Travelers and has a strong result to pair with his underlying metrics. Last year, Straka finished in a tie for 10th at TPC River Highlands after missing the cut in two prior Travelers. However, it’s worth noting Straka has gained on approach and around the green in two of his last three appearances in Cromwell.
In terms of the statistical model, there’s a lot to like about Straka. He’s fourth overall in the 24-round projection, first in the 12-round model and sixth in the eight-round output.
In terms of the 12-round projection, Straka ranks out first in GIRs gained, ninth in birdies or better gained and 19th in SG: Par 4’s. He also sits 17th in SG: Ball Striking, fourth in good drives gained and 16th in SG: around the green.
Lastly, in his last two appearances at Dye designs — the RBC Heritage and the Players Championship — Straka finished tied for third and tied for ninth, respectively.
Put all those trends together and it’s my opinion this price is an absolute steal. Based on my modeling, I would play it at +150 or better.
