With most automatic bids already punched from coast to coast, it’s almost time for the Big Dance.
Here are two Final Four futures to add to your portfolio before prices adjust following Sunday’s “NCAA Tournament Selection Show.”
Baylor to make Final Four (+800)
No matter how you look at it, the Bears have the goods. They’re led by a coach who has a national championship ring and has advanced out of the first round of the Tournament five straight times.
On the floor, Baylor has improved down the stretch and now sits a hair outside the top 10 in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric since Feb. 1.
And the Bears’ zone defense has given teams fits in Big 12 play. According to ShotQuality, BU has the eighth-ranked defense in America.
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The lynchpin for coach Scott Drew might be Langston Love. Baylor’s sixth man averages double figures (11 ppg) off the bench but has played just once since Feb. 21.
His lingering knee injury kept him sidelined for the Big 12 Tournament, but according to Drew, he’s day-to-day. The extra rest ahead of the NCAA Tournament should serve him well.
For many top offensive teams, favorable draws are pivotal when considering them in the futures market. But the Bears have proven they can score and beat elite teams.
They took Houston to overtime and knocked off 12th-ranked Iowa State at home.
The Cougars and Cyclones finished first and second, respectively, in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
Baylor has proven repeatedly that it has the perimeter shooting (40 percent, fifth nationally) and improved play on the low post thanks to Yves Missi’s breakout freshman campaign, to hold their own against elite competition.
And as a cherry on top of this future, March comes down to point guard play, and Baylor has a great one in RayJ Dennis.
RayJ Dennis #10 of the Baylor Bears handles the ball against the Texas Longhorns in the first half at Foster Pavilion. Getty Images The Toledo transfer has started more than 140 games in his career and can impact the game in multiple ways.
As a facilitator, he has had 11 performances in the past two months with eight or more assists. And as a scorer, he’s pumped in 20-plus points against four Quad 1 opponents.
His 21-point showing against top-ranked Houston was particularly impressive given the relentless on-ball pressure from the Cougars’ Jamal Shead.
As of publication, BracketMatrix is calling for Baylor to receive a 3-seed in the Big Dance.
That could help them avoid a juggernaut like UConn, Purdue or Houston until the Elite Eight, making this +800 price all the more enticing.
South Fla. to make Final Four (125/1)
Two mid-majors advanced to the Final Four last season.
Florida Atlantic did it behind a tremendous backcourt, and San Diego State grinded out wins, nipping two teams by a single point in low-scoring games.
South Florida has the makeup to replicate San Diego State’s success.
On the defensive end, Amir Abdur-Rahim’s team defends the 3-point line extremely well (30.9 percent, 29th) and forces opponents into isolation more than they’d like.
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The Bulls don’t beat themselves, evidenced by a plus-2.2 turnover margin (48th). And they can catch fire from beyond the arc. USF leads the AAC during conference play in 3-point accuracy (38.1 percent).
This explains why the Bulls always seem to pull out wins in tight situations. They are 8-2 in games decided by five points or fewer.
But the one stat that stands above the rest is Evan Miya’s Opponent Adjust metric, which measures how well teams play against quality opponents.
South Florida is the fourth-best-performing team in the country when it comes to “punching up” against high-end opponents.
The Bulls save their best for these situations, and that’s what it takes to make a deep run in March.
