The rest-versus-rust debate was a major storyline surrounding Game 1 of the Bruins-Panthers second-round playoff series on Monday.
Would the Boston stay sharp after gutting out an overtime win in Game 7, and how would the Panthers look after a week off between games?
Teams coming off of a Game 7 win facing an opponent which has rested for three or more days have actually fared quite well in the NHL playoffs. After the Bruins’ 5-1 victory in Game 1, teams in that scenario are now 22-17 since 2005.
The Panthers look to even the series in Game 2 Wednesday night at home in a game that sets up nicely for a play in the shot prop market.
Bruins vs. Panthers odds
| Team | Money Line | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruins | +150 | +1.5 (-185) | o5.5 (+100) |
| Panthers | -190 | -1.5 (+150) | u5.5 (-120) |
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Bruins vs. Panthers prediction & pick
A lack of urgency was far from the Panthers’ greatest problem in Game 1, but it did appear the rust might have been a factor with their shaky puck management in the defensive zone.
They poured 86 shots toward Jeremy Swayman, with 39 attempts reaching the target. Swayman stopped 38 of them, pushing his save percentage to a ridiculous .955 in these playoffs.
Whether or not the Panthers are able to clean up their game defensively, it’s a safe bet they will continue to pour a ton of shots toward Swayman throughout the series.
Even after seven games of low-event hockey versus Toronto, the Bruins have allowed 30.69 shots against per 60 this postseason.
The Bruins are not going to own more of the overall run of play in this series versus an up-tempo Panthers side.
They will look to avoid making the kind of full-blown defensive breakdowns that lead to chances that Swayman can’t handle, which has been an effective style so far this postseason.
Jeremy Swayman has a .955 save percentage in the playoffs this season. Boston Globe via Getty Images These factors should continue to lead to good game scripts to back the Panthers most prominent shooters in the shot prop market, and the skater who stands atop the rest based on current prices is Matthew Tkachuk.
Tkachuk was brilliant last postseason, and even entered the cup final as the second favorite to win the Conn Smythe trophy for Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP.
He has kicked off this postseason in strong form with 10 points in six games and an average of 4.33 shots on goal. He had five shots on goal on eight attempts in Game 1.
And while Tkachuk was already generating plenty of shot attempts in his previous role on the second line at the start of the postseason, his average should actually rise in his new role on the top line alongside Aleksandr Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe.
Betting on the NHL?
Based on Wednesday’s morning skate, it appears the trio will remain together for Game 2.
Look for Tkachuk to leave an impact on this matchup. At -120 there is value backing him to record over 3.5 shots on goal.
