Many were surprised that Kansas wasn’t awarded the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, instead settling for the third top seed in the bracket.
The Jayhawks’ reward? A spot in the absolutely loaded West Region.
Five of the best 11 teams per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency are in this region, which features nine top-35 teams overall.
That said, health will go a long way toward determining which of these 17 schools earns a trip to the Final Four.
Here are the odds to win the West Region, per FanDuel, and how we’re betting the region overall:
(via FanDuel)
| Team (seed) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas (1) | +320 |
| UCLA (2) | +350 |
| Gonzaga (3) | +400 |
| Connecticut (4) | +550 |
| TCU (6) | +900 |
| Saint Mary’s (5) | +1000 |
| Arkansas (8) | +2000 |
| Illinois (9) | +2400 |
| Northwestern (7) | +3600 |
| Boise State (10) | +4100 |
| VCU (12) | +9500 |
| Grand Canyon (14) | +10000 |
| UNC Asheville (15) | +10000 |
| Nevada (11) | +10000 |
| Iona (13) | +10000 |
| Arizona State (11) | +10000 |
| Howard (16) | +10000 |
Jalen Wilson #10 of the Kansas JayhawksGetty ImagesMarch Madness bracket 2023: West region picks
No. 1 Seed: Kansas (+320)
Kansas won the national title last year and followed that up by leading the nation with 17 Quad 1 wins this season.
How’s that for a dominant run?
Still, the Jayhawks were blasted by Texas twice in the last two weeks, and Bill Self’s health lingers over this team’s quest to become the first repeat champion to advance past the Sweet 16 since 2007.
Sleeper: No. 6 TCU (+900)
It’s almost hard to call TCU as a sleeper at this point, as it feels like everyone is circling the Horned Frogs as a team to watch in this region.
But few programs in the entire country possess the elite upside of Jamie Dixon’s group.
This team looked like one of the nation’s best after a 16-4 start with wins over Iowa, Providence, Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas.
Then came the injuries, as leading scorer Mike Miles (17.3 PPG) and starting center Eddie Lampkin (5.9 RPG) missed a combined 12 starts over the final 16 games of the season.
Miles is back but struggling to regain his form, and Lampkin has likely played his last game for the program.
We’ve seen an elite ceiling from TCU this season; can Miles rediscover his shooting touch and re-ignite that spark with this high-upside squad?
Damion Baugh #10 of the TCU Horned Frogs Getty ImagesTeam to Avoid: No. 2 UCLA (+350)
This has very little to do with UCLA’s on-court resume – the Bruins rank No. 2 in adjusted efficiency margin and have won 12 of their last 13 games – and everything to do with a rash of injuries that hamper this team’s Final Four upside.
First came the season-ending injury to Jaylen Clark, this team’s third-leading scorer (13 PPG) and the driving force for the best defense in the country.
Then starting center Adem Bona (1.7 BPG) sat out the Pac-12 Tournament final with a shoulder injury, which doesn’t bode well for a team already reinventing itself on the fly.
1st-Round Upset: No. 12 VCU (+150) over No. 5 Saint Mary’s
This pick is no disrespect to Saint Mary’s, which is better than a No. 5 seed on paper and has one of the best defenses in the country.
But this is a brutal matchup for the Gaels.
VCU’s tenacious defense ranks sixth in opposing turnover rate (24.1%) and should be able to disrupt the rhythm of this methodical Saint Mary’s offense.
If freshman guard Aidan Mahaney can’t handle the Rams’ aggressive press, Mike Rhodes’ crew – which really improved offensively down the stretch – will extend the nation’s sixth-longest win streak to 10 games.
Best 1st-Round Matchup: No. 8 Arkansas (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Illinois
This is a fascinating matchup between two teams that are hard to predict ahead of this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas looked like a Final Four team at times before injuries derailed its rotation, and its 3-point woes make this team incredibly volatile.
The same applies for Illinois, which has wins over No. 2 seeds UCLA and Texas but has lost six of its last 10 games.
What makes this matchup particularly compelling: both teams have the talent to test Kansas, especially if the Jayhawks suffer from the same hangover that’s plagued title winners for the last 15 years.
Betting on March Madness 2023?
Jordan Hawkins #24 of the Connecticut HuskiesGetty ImagesWest Region Winner: No. 4 Connecticut (+550)
Advanced metrics have been kind all year to the Huskies, who rank No. 4 in adjusted efficiency margin and join top overall seeds Alabama and Houston as the only three teams with top-20 efficiency on both ends of the court.
Connecticut won its first 14 games of the season before a few close losses in Big East play, but the Huskies have since ripped off a 9-2 run and have the elite size and shooting to bulldoze their way to a potential Elite Eight matchup with Kansas.
That matchup should favor UConn, which blew out top-seeded Alabama earlier this season and has the fourth-highest scoring margin (+13.4) of any team from a power conference.
This team has all the makings of a title team, and this feels like a steal of a price for Dan Hurley’s group to reach the Final Four.
