This year’s Tony Award nominees for Best Musical have never been so unpredictable

“No use permitting some prophet of doom to wipe every smile away!” sings Sally Bowles in the musical “Cabaret.” 

Well, I’m not here to erase every grin in Times Square, but I guarantee that a lot of folks on Broadway won’t be beaming come Tuesday morning. 

That’s when the 2024 Tony Award nominations will be announced, and this year that list carries almost as much weight as the coveted prizes themselves. 

Fifteen new musicals, including “Suffs,” opened this season on Broadway. Joan Marcus

“Pity the shows that don’t make the cut for Best Musical,” said a wag. “This year especially. It will be hard to get through the summer without a nomination.”

During the 2023-24 season, a whopping 15 new musicals opened — the widest field of the past 30 years at least. The competition, for audiences and awards, is as ferocious as the Sharks and Jets.

Or, to reference one contender, “The Outsiders,” as vicious as the Greasers and the Socs.

Ten of those 15 eligible productions are still running, but there will be only five Best Musical nominees called out (six if there’s a tie). So, more than half of what’s on could get the brush.

A Tony nod is a big deal for reasons beyond the prestige. 

The lucky nominees get to perform on the CBS telecast for 4 million potential ticket-buyers, many of whom are hearing about these shows for the first time. And they’ll be able to do additional rounds of national press appearances right as summer tourists hit NYC.

However, that enhanced exposure will be tougher to achieve in what is the most unpredictable year on Broadway in recent memory. 

Nobody in town is totally confident about what will be nominated, let alone what will win.

There will be five Best Musical nominees — possibly including “The Outsiders” — or six if there is a tie. REUTERS

Part of the confusion is that nothing new has emerged as a major box-office hit, a la “Hamilton,” “The Book of Mormon” or “Dear Evan Hansen.” 

Some shows (“The Outsiders,” “Hell’s Kitchen,” “The Great Gatsby”) are chugging along, hoping for a Tonys boost. Others (“Lempicka,” “The Heart of Rock and Roll”) are on fumes, praying they’ll hail the Cash Cab.

Without grosses as their guide, the industry has looked to reviews for clarity.

The last two months, when nine of those musicals opened, were like presidential primaries.

Theater folk pored over critics’ appraisals on opening night trying to make sense of the March and April madness. I’ve never received so many baffled texts at 9:01 p.m.

But my cohorts and I, while liking (and loathing) a lot, couldn’t agree on what the show is.

So the culling comes down to the 44-person Tony nominating committee — and then the tastes of the 800-or-so Tony voters, including the “road voters,” a 100-strong group that lives outside of New York.

“Illinoise” is a dance performance set to the music of Sufjan Stevens, leading some to wonder if it’s technically a musical. CREDIT: Liz Lauren, 2024

“The road will want ‘Hell’s Kitchen,’ ” a source said of the Alicia Keys musical at the Shubert. “Probably the only one. ‘Hell’s Kitchen’ or ‘Water for Elephants.’” 

Another voter expressed particular fondness for “The Outsiders,” the touching show at the Jacobs based on S.E. Hinton’s teen novel.

Everybody admires “Illinoise,” a beautiful dance piece set to the music of Sufjan Stevens that opened Thursday at the St. James, but there are also whispered doubts of whether or not it’s a musical.

Who else has a shot? “Suffs” and “Here Lies Love,” maybe. But I bet the nominations throw a curveball.

While Best Musical is completely up for grabs, it’s a cinch to predict the winners of the other big three categories — even before the noms are uttered.

“Stereophonic” takes Best Play, “Appropriate” wins Best Revival of a Play, and “Merrily We Roll Along” has Best Revival of a Musical wrapped up.

Can the pricey revival of “Cabaret” starring Eddie Redmayne give “Merrily” a race? No dice, old chum.