Over the past few seasons, we’ve seen an increase in the number of high-end starting pitchers taken in the first few rounds or fantasy baseball drafts, and it has proven to be a viable strategy. Opening the draft with “pocket aces” was all the rage.
Nevertheless, with an increase in pitcher injuries and seeing just how severe an impact losing a first- or second-round starting pitcher has on your overall team, taking a retro approach and loading up on offense early seems to be a more sensible way to draft this season. You do not need to draft a top-five starter to build a winning fantasy rotation.
Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con When people were drafting elite starting pitching early, the advantage was obvious. Starters such as Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer offered wins, strikeouts and fantastic ratios. Even the next tier was flush with talent with players like Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Gerrit Cole.
But drafting them meant sacrificing offense, and all seven of these mentioned have struggled to stay healthy, which meant your advantage in pitching was gone while your offense was still playing catch-up. This season we have Spencer Strider, Cobrin Burnes and Zack Wheeler atop the rankings, and if history repeats itself, at least two of them will disappoint your fantasy teams.
Taking a look at average draft position, you can grab elite bats through the first four rounds and still land some incredibly strong starters for your rotation.
Zac Gallen, Pablo Lopez and Tarik Skubal are all likely to contend for Cy Young honors this season, and all are available in the fourth round of most 12-team drafts. Dropping even further into your draft are George Kirby, Framber Valdez and Grayson Rodriguez, all of whom are budding aces for their team.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post Any one of these six pitchers can be used as your anchor ace, and if you wanted to double-tap the position and grab a second starter to be safe, up-and-comers like Eury Perez, Bobby Miller and Cole Ragans have an ADP that lands them in the seventh round.
The depth of starting pitching should not be lost on your analysis and draft plan. Fewer starters are throwing 200 innings, fewer starters are reaching the 200-strikeout threshold, and fewer starters are racking up 15-plus wins. Focusing on a top target like Strider or Burnes simply doesn’t give you the advantage it once did.
Build up that offense first. Get your power and your speed locked in early. There is a vast ocean of starting pitching available to you in your draft, and there are plenty of mid-round gems who will produce at a high level. That’s how you build a championship team.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.
