It doesn’t happen often, but I’m laying the wood and backing double-digit favorites with my Week 5 college football picks. A lot of these matchups just scream blowout to me, starting with Georgia traveling to Missouri.
I like backing a superior team the week after a bad performance. Georgia struggled against Kent State last Saturday, beating the Golden Flashes just 39-22 as a 44.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs had allowed just 10 points in their first three games.
Do you think Kirby Smart might have turned up the heat a little in practice this week?
Kirby SmartUSA TODAY SportsMissouri is a bad football team and head coach Eliah Drinkwitz is living on borrowed time. The Tigers are also in an awful spot, facing an angry Georgia squad. Missouri’s toughest opponent to date was Kansas State, which beat the Tigers 40-12 and held them to 3.4 yards per play. With all due respect to the Wildcats, Kansas State isn’t Georgia.
The road team has covered seven of the last 10 meetings in this series. Look for that trend to continue as the Dawgs roll.
The pick: Georgia -28.5.
Alabama (-17.5) over ARKANSAS
I got this number at -14.5, but would play it up to 18. I don’t like this matchup for Arkansas, especially coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Texas A&M after which some of the Razorbacks players were crying on the sidelines.
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Now, Arkansas must turn right around and face arguably the best team in the country. Alabama struggled on Sept. 10 in its only true road test of the season, when the Crimson Tide were lucky to beat Texas. Don’t expect a repeat performance on Saturday.
When these two teams met last season, Alabama QB Bryce Young threw for 559 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-35 win. This year, Young will get to feast on a pass defense that ranks 126th in the country giving up over 300 yards per game and 14.25 yards per completion.
There will be too much offense from ’Bama for the Hogs to keep up.
USC (-14.5 1st Half) over Arizona State
Last week, I gave out Oregon State versus USC. Not only did the Beavers cover, but also they were one stop away from pulling the outright upset before losing in the final minutes, 17-14.
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That’s not a misprint. The Trojans scored just 17 points and won. Expect a lot more than 17 points against Arizona State.
The Sun Devils are a corpse after already firing head coach Herm Edwards less than a month into the season. Oregon State had the speed on defense to give USC’s offense problems. Arizona State does not. The Sun Devils’ defense gives up more than 180 rushing yards per game and allows opponents to convert 87.5 percent of the time in the red zone.
Look for Caleb Williams to bounce back in a big way after completing just 44.4 percent of his passes last week as the Trojans jump on ASU early.
Last week: 3-1. Oregon State (W), James Madison (W), UCLA (W), Michigan (L).
Season: 7-5-1.
