SATURDAY AM: Civil War is staying strong with A24 reporting a $10.8M Friday. Rivals’ estimates are wild from $24M-$27M. As we previously wrote, that’s a slam dunk opening record for A24.
Here’s the good news: No one is expecting the movie to greatly crater at this point with a spike on Saturday +18% to +20% (vs. Friday less $2.9M previews), this despite a B- CinemaScore and 76% positive on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak (53% definite recommend), which indicates that crowds are split. Some do have their concerns that the Kirsten Dunst, Cailee Spaeny, Nick Offerman and Wagner Moura movie is frontloaded.
That audience grade isn’t bad news for A24: They have a history of generating heat off of a divided audience score/critically acclaimed movies (typically genre films). Seriously, A24 can own a B or C CinemaScore in ways that other distributors cannot due to their grassroot, digital marketing campaigns. Alex Garland’s Civil War is under the A-s acheived by Kathryn Bigelow’s politically charged thrillers, Zero Dark Thirty and Detroit (those are our comps). Interestingly enough when Zero Dark Thirty went wide, it had a weekend of $24.4M and Civil War is shaping up to beat that.
Mostly male skewing here for Civil War at 73% with 57% of the audience being the prime 18-34moviegiong demo. Largest demo was 25-34 at 36%. Diversity range was 50% Caucasian, a very strong 24% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, 8% Asian and 6% other. Best regions for Civil War are South (A24 did have great test scores in Dallas), South Central and the West. Best cinema in the nation is AMC Lincoln Square in NYC with close to $80K. Imax and PLFs are on fire and accounting for 49% of the gross; that speaks volumes on an adult skewing movie that isn’t a fire-breathing tentpole.
Legendary/Warner Bros’ Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire is looking at $14.3M-$15M after a $4M Friday, -53%, for a potential $157.4M running total on the high end.
Mucho Mas Media has the Dennis Quaid-Jay Hernandez golf movie, The Long Game with $638K Friday, $1.45M 3-day in 8th place. Pic is inspired by Humberto G. Garcia’s Mustang Miracle, follows the true story of five young Mexican American caddies in 1955 who created their own golf course in the middle of the South Texas brush country. Despite outdated and inferior equipment and no professional instruction to begin with, they would go on to compete against wealthy, all-white teams and win the 1957 Texas State High School Golf Championship. The movie is playing well in Texan markets San Antonio, Corpus Christi and Houston, as well as LA, Orlando and Boston.
Well Go USA has the horror thriller Sting from Kiah Roache-Turner popping into the top 10 with $487K Friday, $1.2M 3-day at 1,350 theaters in 9th. Decent ticket sales in I’m told in LA, NYC, San Diego, Portland, OR, Orlando, Fresno, Salt Lake City, Phoenix and Chicago. Pic is 71% fresh with critics, and 50% with audiences.
Also opening wide this weekend is IFC‘s Nicolas Cage movie Arcadian with an estimated $202K Friday and 3-day of $475K in early projections at 1,100 locations. Great reviews with critics at 84% on RT, but audiences didn’t warm to the movie at 37%.
We’ll have the chart later for you today.
FRIDAY PM: “Great number,” heralds one rival distributor about the weekend results for A24’s Civil War which will easily become the studio’s biggest opening of all-time at $23M-$25M after $10M Friday/previews at 3,838 theaters. That beats the $13.5M start of Ari Aster’s 2018 movie Hereditary.
It’s an impressive result for a movie which is set against the backsplash of a divided U.S., something that hits extremely too close to home. While Blue State audiences will clearly hear the gong that this movie is sounding through the eyes of war photojournalists, will Red State moviegoers be stoked as well? We shall see. Whatever your views, Act 2 and Act 3 payoff in Imax.
Says News Corp. owned New York Post critic Johnny Oleksinski, “Garland’s movie is no more vital to the discourse than “The Purge,” and is about 1% as entertaining.”
Social media monitor RelishMix, which measured a social media universe north of 101M across TikTok, X, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, reports: “Convo on Civil War runs mixed, like the film itself. Audiences are divided on their feelings towards A24’s most expensive film yet. At the forefront, fans are highly anticipating the next thriller from director Alex Garland: ‘If you look at Garland’s past work, you know this has the potential to be a damn good movie.’ Another spectator adds ‘This is going to be so intense, and I’m so excited it’s in IMAX! Hell yeah, Alex Garland!’ Others are excited about A24 dipping its toes further into the action genre after fan favorite Everything, Everywhere All At Once: ‘I think A24 is my new favorite production studio. This doesn’t look like a typical, big studio, cookie-cutter war pic.’ But those on the opposing side feel the film is stepping into dangerously ‘too close to real life’ territory for them to enjoy it: ‘Why pay money when I can see the real thing for free?’ Others feel the film is too divisive to be entertaining in our current political landscape, ‘Hollywood really thought this was a good idea right now?'”
What’s really cool about A24 is that like HBO, their brand alone can draw a solid portion of their weekend business; even if their fans don’t know anything about the filmmaker or movie (aka ‘A24 core’). I’m told that the portion of A24 die-hards who show up varies per movie.
In second place is Legendary/Warner Bros’ Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire which will roar to a third weekend between $14M-$15M (-54%) after a $3.6M Friday (-57%) at 3,847 theaters. That will get the Monsterverse movie to $157.4M by Sunday. That means New Empire has defeated the domestic results of 2021’s Godzilla vs. Kong ($100.9M), 2019’s Godzilla King of the Monsters ($110.5M), and its $10.6M away from taking over Kong: Skull Island ($168M domestic).
Third belongs to the fourth weekend of Sony’s Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire at 3,350 theaters with a Friday of $1.2M, 3-day of $4.6M, -49% and a running total by Sunday EOD of $95.8M.
Fourth and fifth belong to Universal with Monkey Man‘s second weekend of $4.5M, -56% after a Friday of $1.3M. That will get Dav Patel’s directorial debut to $18.1M at 3,037 venues.
Then there’s the studio’s DreamWorks Animation Kung Fu Panda 4 with a sixth weekend of $4.4M, -43%, for a running total of $172.9M after a Friday of $1.1M. The fourthquel past the sequel, Kung Fu Panda 2, last weekend ($165.2M).
FRIDAY AM: A24’s Alex Garland political thriller, Civil War, is off to a solid start with $2.9M in Thursday previews at 2,931 locations, the movie on its way to $20M+ opening. That is the best ever in previews for an A24 movie, more than double Hereditary ($1.3M). Nobody, rivals nor A24 are complaining about that for what is the studio’s priciest pic north of $50M before P&A, which we also hear is close to $20M. A24 sold the majority of foreign rights early with Entertainment Film Distributors handling in the UK and Roadhouse in Australia/New Zealand . Other major territories go next weekend.
At 3,800 theaters, boosted by Imax, this is A24’s widest release ever. It’s also the widest R-rated release for an independent studio.
Even before this weekend started, A24 per sources had $2M in the bank already for Civil War and that was just for today’s advance tickets, not last night’s. The question is whether this movie plays to the heartland and not the coasts. There is some confidence that the movie will perform well in red states as the pic was tested in Kansas City and Dallas to great results.
Critics are good with the Kirsten Dunst, Nick Offerman, and Cailee Spaeny movie at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and audiences at 86%.
Comps are hard on this one, but Civil War has the feeling of an Oliver Stone and Kathryn Bigelow movies. Far and away, these preview figures for Civil War are well ahead of Bigelow’s Detroit which did $525K and fizzled to a $7.1M wide opening (in its second weekend). Though a drama, Stone’s Snowden saw $2.7M in previews and $8M opening, but Civil War isn’t expected to crater like that title.
Garland’s Paramount future thriller, Annihilation, starring Natalie Portman did $900K back in February 2018 before posting a $3.8M first day, $11M opening.
IFC Films has the second wide entry of the weekend with the Nicolas Cage dystopian thriller, Arcadian, which world premiered at SXSW. Pic is in north of 1,000 theaters with an eye on a low single digits start. Critics enjoyed at 87% fresh, but audiences are at 67%. The Benjamin Brewer directed movie follows a father and his twin teenage sons who are fighting to survive in a remote farmhouse at the end of the world.
Elsewhere, Legendary/Warner Bros’ Godzilla x Kong: New Empire made $1.5M yesterday at 3,948 theaters, -23% from Wednesday, ending its second week with $39.1M and a running total of $142.4M.
Universal’s Monkey Man ended its first week with $13.6M after an estimated $680K Thursday at 3,029 sites, -21% from Wednesday.
Sony’s Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ends week 3 with $11.3M at 3,835 theaters after a $516K estimated Thursday, -12%. Running total is now $91.1M. The pic is trailing 13% behind Ghostbusters: Afterlife at the same point in time; that pic ending its domestic run at $129.3M.
20th Century Studios’ First Omen booked at 3,375 locations ends week one with $10.8M after a $528K Thursday, -13% from Wednesday.
Legendary/Warner’s Dune: Part Two ends week 6 with $10.1M after a $630K Thursday, -14% for a running total of $267.7M.
