The narrative for Game 6 between the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars has been set.
By winning Games 4 and 5, Dallas tossed the pressure back onto the Knights, who will look to close out this series after failing to do so in their first two tries.
Only four teams in NHL history have blown a 3-0 series lead in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Vegas will want to avoid a do-or-die Game 7, where it would have all the pressure on its shoulders.
In an interesting wrinkle, bettors are not flocking to the Stars in this scenario.
You’d think that most of the money and bets would come in on the team that’s riding a two-game winning streak and not the one under the pressure of squandering a 3-0 lead, but according to the Action Network the opposite has happened.
At the time of writing, Vegas has attracted 60% of the bets and 57% of the money as a +110 underdog. Is that the right side in this matchup?
Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction
(8 p.m. ET. ESPN)
The betting market also tells another intriguing story.
Game 3 of this series — which was the first to be played in Dallas — closed with the Stars as a -150 favorite.
Dallas came unglued in that contest and allowed Vegas to get a commanding 3-0 series lead; that caused the market to overreact, and Game 4 ended up as basically a pick ’em.
Ivan Barbashev #49 of the Vegas Golden Knights celebratesGetty ImagesThe Stars would win that tilt in overtime and then followed it up with an impressive showing in Game 5.
All in all, a 3-2 series lead for Vegas is a pretty fair scoreline.
The Knights have been solid at 5-on-5 for the lion’s share of the first five games and they’ve done a better job at managing big situations.
The Stars blew a late lead to ruin a strong performance in Game 2 and were terrible out of the gates in Game 3, while Vegas has more or less kept its composure.
That said, the Stars are trending in the right direction overall.
Dallas has the edge in expected goals, shot attempts and high-danger scoring opportunities at 5-on-5 in the series and is the team with the advantages on the fringes.
Dallas has some edges on paper — namely special teams and goaltending — that didn’t tilt the series in its favor early on, but Jake Oettinger has stabilized for the Stars in the blue paint, allowing them to find their way back into the series.
Ty Dellandrea #10 and Max Domi #18 of the Dallas StarsGetty ImagesBetting on the NHL?
And, as obvious as it sounds, the more opportunities that Oettinger has to be the difference against career backup Adin Hill, the better chance that the goaltending advantage really tips into Dallas’ favor.
The Stars have earned their way back into this series and if you think they’re the right side in Game 6, you may as well take them to win in seven.
Golden Knights vs. Stars pick
The Bet: Dallas Stars to win the series +250 (BetMGM)
