As the 2022-23 global soccer campaign approaches, so too does the launch of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League.
Set to begin with its first matchday on Tuesday, Sept. 6, the Champions League brings together the top finishers on the continent for a tournament that will culminate this year in Istanbul. As it stands, Manchester City (+300) is the favorite to win this year’s competition, while 2021 runner-up Liverpool (+550) owns the second-shortest price in the futures market.
Following closely are Ligue 1 champions Paris Saint Germain (+650) and 2020 UCL winners Bayern Munich (+700), then 2022 UCL champions Real Madrid (11/1) and 2021 winners Chelsea (12/1).
But, where should your money head in the early stages? Here are my two best UCL futures bets at this time. Odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to movement.
Nico BarellaReutersInter Milan (23/1)
Despite finishing second in Serie A last season, Inter ended with the best expected goal differential. That’s largely because of the play of Inter’s attack, which not only racked up the most expected goals in the Italian top-flight, but did so by 15 expected goals over its nearest chaser.
The scary part? It could add both Romelu Lukaku and Paulo Dybala to its attacking ranks in the not-too-distant future. Those moves, in my opinion, would elevate Inter’s continental profile.
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Additionally, if you measure Inter’s profile amongst the “Big Five” leagues — Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 — it posted the fourth-best expected goal differential in the third-hardest league based on UEFA country coefficients. Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Bayern Munich can claim a better xGDiff than the Nerazzurri.
This is also a club that, although it exited in the round of 16 last year, produced a lot of positives in the Champions League. It won both matches on expected goals against eventual champions Real Madrid and, despite losing the match on expected goals, went to Anfield and defeated Liverpool.
Diego SimeoneEPAI will like Inter a lot less if it loses midfielder Nico Barella, but the fact is Inter has the quality to make a deep run this season.
Atletico Madrid (42/1)
Love it or hate it, Atletico is a club built for success in this competition.
Manager Diego Simeone’s side ousted Manchester United in last year’s round of 16 before bowing out to Manchester City in the quarters. Nevertheless, this is a club that knows how to defend home-field advantage, a pivotal aspect of handicapping the Champions League.
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In five UCL home fixtures last season, Atletico won three on expected goals, including both knockout round fixtures against United and City.
Further, once the knockout round begins, Atletico is virtually unbeatable at home. Dating back to the 2013-14 UEFA Champions League, Los Rojiblancos are unbeaten in knockout round fixtures played in Madrid. In those 15 fixtures, it is 9-0-6 (W-L-D).
Though Atletico has struggled to emerge from the group stage recently, there’s too much talent on this side not to bet them at this price. Give me the two-time UCL finalists at 30/1 or better.
