He went through six bankruptcies and two impeachments, was found liable for sexual assault, was convicted of all 34 charges in a criminal felony case — and yet, former president Donald Trump is now president-elect Trump, poised to re-enter the White House on January 20, 2025. That is, to put it mildly, a sobering prospect. It isn't as if scandal has lost its ability to derail a campaign; other Republicans in major races were brought low, in part, by misbehavior and chicanery. What's striking about Trump is how his scandals and legal woes have not only not stopped his political comeback, but that he managed the comeback while sentencing and investigations are still ongoing, including probes into his efforts to subvert the 2020 election.
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His reelection will undoubtedly impact those efforts by special counsel Jack Smith and the state of Georgia. Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani, President of West Coast Trial Lawyers, told Grunge that Trump's legal woes are likely to vanish altogether. "It's well established that a sitting president can't be prosecuted," he said. As of November 2024, Smith is appealing his case to the Eleventh Circuit; a Trump Department of Justice can simply abandon the appeal. "If for some reason Jack Smith refuses to dismiss the cases," said Rahmani, "Trump can direct his Attorney General to fire Smith."
Trump's Georgia case will likely fall apart
The American presidency is a powerful one, but despite what Donald Trump has sometimes claimed, there are clear limits to the office's authority. A president cannot, for example, pardon someone convicted of a crime at the state level (per the Department of Justice). And state attorneys general are not appointed by the federal government. Were the legal proceedings against Trump for interference in Georgia's 2020 election to proceed, it would be on the impetus of officials independent of Trump. And were Trump to be convicted, he would have no ability to rid himself of it.
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But the Georgia case, centered in Fulton County, is likely dead. The precedent of a sitting president being immune from prosecution applies even at the state level. That means that the case would effectively be on hold for the four years of Trump's second term. "Trump, like any criminal defendant, has a right to a speedy trial," Neama Rahmani tells Grunge, "so staying or putting the cases on hold for four years until he is out of office would not be an option either."
Trump was probably never going to see jailtime for his New York convictions
As dispiriting as it may be, Donald Trump's reelection appears to have closed the book on investigations into his role in subverting the 2020 election. But what of his outstanding convictions? Thirty-four felony counts is no small thing, and as it was a matter for New York state, Trump has no ability to pardon himself. He has twice succeeded in delaying sentencing, and as of this writing, a decision has yet to be made on Trump's request to toss the convictions altogether due to a Supreme Court ruling that presidents enjoy total immunity for official acts — a relevant detail due to some evidence introduced during the case, according to Neama Rahmani. But he could still face sentencing if Judge Juan Merchan rules against him.
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But Rahmani thinks that Trump was never likely to face jail time even if he had lost the 2024 election. "Merchan didn't remand Trump despite 10 violations of his gag order," said Rahmani. "Merchan doesn't have the stomach to imprison a former president or president-elect. Nor would it be appropriate for a defendant with no criminal history convicted of Class E felonies (the least serious under New York law)." Rahmani also thinks that, if Trump faces sentencing of any kind, he's likely to appeal it all the way to the Supreme Court.