Max Scherzer is pitching today for the New York Mets. How great does that sound?
The Mets are slowly getting healthy as the calendar flips to July and an intense race for the NL East continues to heat up.
Of course, July typically sets up for trade deadline moves and a mad rush to improve the roster. The Mets will get Scherzer back and potentially Jacob deGrom, who struck out five of six batters in his rehab start on July 3.
Since Scherzer’s last start, the Mets are an impressive 25-16, weathering the storm quite well without their two aces. In Cincinnati this evening, the Mets will look to win the first two of this best-of-three series against the tanking Reds.
The game will be live on SNY in New York and on Bally Sports starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
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Mets vs. Reds odds (6:40 PM est.)
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: NYM -1.5 (-130) vs. CIN +1.5 (+105)
Moneyline: NYM (-200) vs. CIN (+165)
Total: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Mets vs. Reds probable pitchers
Max Scherzer (5-1, 2.54) vs. Nick Lodolo (1-2, 5.52)
Max Scherzer returns to the mound today against the RedsGetty ImagesMets vs. Reds prediction
The pitching matchup clearly favors the Mets, even with the uncertainty of how long Scherzer will go today.
SNY reported that the Mets’ plan for Scherzer is to hopefully go around six innings and throw 90 pitches. That is plenty if things go according to plan for the Mets.
His counterpart, Nick Lodolo has not pitched in the big leagues since April. This will be his first start since being activated off of the 60-day injured list. In April, Lodolo struggled to the tune of a 5.52 ERA, but his 3.80 xERA and 3.17 xFIP show that he was actually more unlucky than anything.
In that small sample size in April, he gave up just under two home runs per nine innings (1.8). Lodolo was a top 10 pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, so we know he has a solid prospect pedigree.
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However, Lodolo ranks ‘above average’ in a few categories but not elite in anything. His prospect grades are almost all 55/80 with 50 being average and 80 being elite. Coming in at 55 for his pitches and a 60 grade for his control would profile his potential as a third starter at peal.
Currently, he is not at that level or close to it. The Mets are absolutely the rightful favorite this afternoon. Lodolo isn’t an elite arm by any means, and this is a hitters ballpark.
Look for the Mets to put up more runs this weekend as they ride Max Scherzer’s arm to victory on Tuesday.
Mets vs. Reds pick
Mets -1.5 (BetMGM)
