NFL Week 13 early predictions, picks: Chiefs have revenge on their mind

As if the first two-thirds of this NFL season hasn’t provided enough drama, Week 13 is sure to deliver one of the more memorable and noteworthy weeks of the season.

Deshaun Watson is back for the Browns after an 11-game suspension and faces off against his former team in the Texans. Two-time reigning MVP winner Aaron Rodgers headlines a list of star passers with questionable tags ahead of this week. At the same time, current award favorite Patrick Mahomes prepares for a vengeance spot against last year’s AFC champion Bengals.

Here’s a look at the Week 13 odds at BetMGM and the games we’re targeting early in the week:

Risk Free First Bet up to $1,000 with NPBONUS

New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.

First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars

New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.

No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000

21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply

NFL Week 13 betting odds, point spreads (via BetMGM)

Week 13 predictions and picks

Packers vs. Bears under 42.5

This is a clear speculative play on the health of Rodgers (ribs) and Justin Fields (shoulder), both of whom missed at least some time last week and are iffy to suit up on Sunday.

The Bears’ offense clearly struggled without Fields last week, scoring just 10 points in their lowest output since Week 6. The Packers could be in a tough spot if Rodgers isn’t 100%, too, as they’ve combined to score just 18 points in their last three games without him.

Both of these defenses have had their fair share of struggles, which is why this total still hovers in the low 40s, even with both quarterbacks battling injuries. Still, if either can’t go on Sunday, this total could drop in a hurry.

Broncos-Ravens under 38.5

We’ve been riding the Broncos under train for weeks now, and it’s paid off significantly. Why not get ahead of the inevitable run on the under at a reasonable number?

It’s only a matter of time before bettors catch onto the cash cow that is Denver, which is now 10-1 to the under after last week’s 23-10 loss to the Panthers. The Broncos enter this week ranked dead last in scoring offense (14.3 PPG) and third in scoring defense (17.6 PPG), which has fueled a seven-game winning streak for under bettors when they’re involved.

The Ravens’ offense is facing similar challenges after a sloppy showing last week, and while this unit has better days ahead, it’ll face a stiff test against this stellar Denver defense. This total could dip even lower by Sunday, and I’d much rather buy in early on a team that can’t seem to escape low-scoring affairs.

Betting on the NFL?

Chiefs -2.5 @ Bengals

The Chiefs have been a shaky bet against the spread, cashing in just four of their first 11 games after last week’s push against the Rams (+16). Yet this price is too juicy to ignore, and I’d be surprised if it lasts all week.

Since Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback in 2018, Kansas City is a stellar 12-4-1 ATS when laying fewer than three points, which includes a 21-point win over the 49ers (+1) earlier this year. That kickstarted the Chiefs’ current five-game win streak – all coming by three or more points – as Mahomes ascends to MVP front-runner status.

He’ll have revenge on his mind against the team that beat him twice last year, including in that stunning comeback effort in the AFC title game. The Bengals have been a solid ATS bet this year thanks to relatively low expectations week-after-week, but this line gives too much credit to the hosts and not enough to perhaps the best team in the league.