How Brock Purdy performs Sunday could go a long way toward determining Tom Brady’s future.
There is the unlikeliest sentence ever written in the history of NFL coverage.
The 49ers are in a unique situation for a potential Super Bowl winner in that they could have any of at least four different starting quarterbacks when the 2023 season opens. The rookie Purdy can continue staking his claim against the Eagles in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game and maybe in Super Bowl 57 on Feb. 12, while the two teammates who started before him — Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo — watch from the sideline and the Greatest of All Time drops F-bombs on his podcast.
The 49ers’ situation isn’t analogous to the Broncos turning to Brian Griese in 1999 after John Elway retired on top or turning to Trevor Siemian in 2016 after Peyton Manning retired on top. It’s also not the same as when Neil O’Donnell left the Steelers for a big free-agent deal in 1995, or when the Vikings moved on from Joe Kapp in 1970 and the Ravens moved on from Trent Dilfer in 2001 after their final starts were in Super Bowls.
The case for Purdy… As good as the 2022 draft’s “Mr. Irrelevant” was while going 5-0 in the regular season (119 quarterback rating, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions), Purdy has been nearly as good in the playoffs (109.9 rating, three touchdowns and zero interceptions). He is due to count just $870,000 against the 2023 cap and is under contract through 2025, which means the 49ers can keep their superteam around him.
The last pick of the 2022 draft has yet to lose a game as a starter and has the 49ers a game away from the Super Bowl.Getty ImagesHead coach Kyle Shanahan is trusting Purdy to make throws that he didn’t even let Garoppolo make during the 49ers’ last two deep playoff runs. If Purdy wins the Super Bowl, how do you bench him? The Giants’ Jeff Hostetler (1991) and Washington’s Doug Williams (1988) were backups who won a Super Bowl and started the next season opener.
The case for Garoppolo… The plan was to dump Garoppolo last offseason, but then he underwent shoulder surgery in March and there were no takers for his big salary, which he reduced to remain as the backup to Lance. Garoppolo still had plenty of support from teammates after last season, when he had the 49ers one bad quarter away from a second Super Bowl appearance in three years, so there almost seemed to be a sense of relief when he took over for an injured Lance in Week 2.
Garoppolo was 7-3 as a starter — upping his career record to 40-17 — before he was injured. All he does is win … and get injured. Garoppolo is a free agent, and probably will find a guaranteed starting job elsewhere rather than return to compete with the 49ers.
The case for Lance… It’s not a good look to waste the No. 3 pick. That’s it. Any argument for Lance is tied up in draft capital because his career thus far amounts to a 2-2 record as a starter with a 54.9 percent completion rate, five touchdowns and three interceptions. He has thrown more than 71 passes in a season just once since high school in 2017.
Trey Lance has spent more time on the sideliness for the Niners than on the field since he was drafted No. 3 overall in 2021.Getty ImagesLance is still owed $9 million cash over the next two years on his fully guaranteed $34 million contract, and he will count $9.3 million against the cap in 2023. If the 49ers had shown more confidence in Garoppolo — or could’ve foreseen nabbing Purdy or waiting for Brady down the road — imagine this offense with receiver Ja’Marr Chase (picked two selections after Lance) added to it.
The case for Brady… It admittedly stunned Brady — rightfully so — when so few teams were interested in him as a free agent in 2020 after his uninspiring end with the Patriots. He won the Super Bowl in his first season with the Buccaneers. Three years later, will teams make the same judgment in free agency? Will it be right this time? Is the 45-year-old seven-time Super Bowl winner washed up? Can the 49ers take the chance that he’s not when they have so many other options?
Brady grew up as a 49ers fan in California — what a cool, full-circle way to end his career — and no longer needs to be tied to the East Coast for his now ex-wife, though he does share joint custody of his youngest two children. It would be easier to join Josh McDaniels’ Raiders and not have to learn a new offense, though.
The irony is that another California native, boyhood 49ers fan and future Hall of Famer also might love to finish his career playing for his hometown team, but the Packers hold Aaron Rodgers’ rights and reportedly only will trade him to an AFC team.
Five to go
Here are five other thoughts during a busy time around the NFL:
1. The best job in coaching remains being a television analyst. What became clear during Jon Gruden’s nine-year hiatus — when he was seemingly linked to every vacancy from 2009-18 and looked as if he had all the leverage as he worked for “Monday Night Football” — rings true again when comparing the narratives floating around the available Sean Payton and the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy.
Though Mike McCarthy’s gameplan against the 49ers has come under intense scrutiny, the Cowboys do not appear ready to fire a coach with a .614 career winning percentage in the regular season.Getty ImagesMcCarthy’s every decision was nitpicked as he led the Cowboys to a second straight 12-win season and the Divisional round of the NFC playoffs, including the laughable final play in the loss to the 49ers with Ezekiel Elliott at center and 300-pounders at receiver. Meanwhile, Payton, who worked for Fox and thus made no sideline gaffes during a one-year break from coaching, projected an image that he was highly coveted as he interviewed for four head coach jobs.
What a difference in perception. Except here are their resumes:
Sean Payton: 152-89 (.631) in the regular season, 9-8 in the playoffs, 7 division titles, 1-0 in Super Bowl
Mike McCarthy: 155-97-2 (.614) in the regular season, 11-10 in the playoffs, 7 division titles, 1-0 in Super Bowl
McCarthy often gets discredited because he inherited Brett Favre, butted heads at the end of his tenure with a veteran Rodgers (forget that he developed a young Rodgers) and arrived in Dallas just as Dak Prescott was peaking. Well, Payton’s first 15 seasons with the Saints started with a peaking Drew Brees. There’s no guarantee that his touch would work with another quarterback.
Gruden’s second stint as Raiders head coach was on its way to failing on the field even before his emails leaked and he was fired for misconduct. Judging by Payton not yet getting a second interview with any teams, maybe he is not the hot commodity that everyone expected. Or maybe Payton is planning to sit out another year to see whether McCarthy gets fired from the job he really wants.
2. Ever since the Cardinals made the bold move to pick quarterbacks in the top 10 of the draft in back-to-back years — dumping Josh Rosen after one season in favor of Kyler Murray in 2019 — there has been constant chatter about which team might follow suit. The Giants didn’t dump Daniel Jones for Justin Herbert in 2020. The Dolphins didn’t dump Tua Tagovailoa for Mac Jones or Justin Fields in 2021.
While it is unclear if Justin Fields can develop into a franchise QB, there are some NFL observers who think the Bears should trade him and draft a new quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick.NurPhoto via Getty ImagesBut there is a camp of those who believe now is the right time for the Bears to copy the Cardinals with their top pick in the 2023 draft. ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said this week that Fields “would be No. 1” if he was leaving Ohio State now, but others think Alabama’s Bryce Young is a better prospect.
General manager Ryan Poles inherited Fields, and the Bears already have wasted two of the four years on his rookie contract. Poles could put his stamp on the Bears by drafting Young at No. 1, restarting the four-year rookie clock and trading Fields for a package that includes another first-round pick. Not to mention …
“We still don’t know if Fields can throw the ball well enough to win consistently, especially outside in Chicago in January,” one league source said. “He’s the best running quarterback outside of Lamar Jackson, but where has that gotten the Ravens in five years, even with Lamar’s development as a passer?”
3. When the Jets hired Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, the Rodgers-to-the-Jets speculation went into overdrive because of Hackett’s three seasons as Packers offensive coordinator. What went overlooked is the much less sexy possibility that the Jets could trade for Jordan Love to compete with Zach Wilson and maybe add a discount veteran such as Andy Dalton or Blaine Gabbert through free agency.
It’s now or never for Love, who sat on the bench for three years behind Rodgers and will be a free agent after the 2023 season. If the Packers don’t deal Rodgers and commit to starting Love, they should trade him for a mid-round or late-round draft pick to get something as a return on a wasted first-round draft pick.
New Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is a fan of Packers backup quarterback Jordan Love, who may not have a path to start if Aaron Rodgers stays in Green Bay.Getty ImagesAfter Love’s only career start — against the Chiefs in November 2021 — Hackett praised him because Love “didn’t skip a beat” when he “took some shots.” Earlier that year, Hackett said something else telling about Love’s familiarity with the offense he presumably will bring to the Jets.
“One of the bigger things with Jordan right now is just his confidence in the system,” Hackett said. “Coming from college and then picking it up as a rookie … he can do that much easier now and then be able to go out there and execute them. And I think that’s something we’ve been able to see. So now we can talk about the techniques and the reads and all those intricate details that we want to get to him.”
Love is one of three quarterbacks drafted in the first round since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger who has made fewer than two career starts, according to Pro Football Reference. Jim Druckenmiller (No. 26 pick in 1997) and Rich Campbell (No. 6 in 1981) are the others.
4. The so-called “America’s Team” was eliminated when the Cowboys lost to the 49ers. The adopted “America’s Team” was eliminated when the Bills lost to the Bengals and the hope disappeared that the story of Damar Hamlin’s remarkable recovery from a near-death experience during a Jan. 2 game (also against the Bengals) would end with Hamlin and his teammates celebrating a Super Bowl title.
So, who should fans whose favorite team is eliminated root for now? Let us suggest the Bengals as the new bandwagon. Not just because their .454 franchise winning percentage ranks No. 24 all-time and they are the only one of the final four teams without a Super Bowl trophy, but because of their joint response in the handling of the Hamlin situation that defined this season.
Bills coach Sean McDermott praised Zac Taylor for the compassion he and the Bengals showed in the wake of Damar Hamlin’s on-field cardiac arrest.Getty ImagesWhether you believe what announcer Joe Buck said he was told during the Jan. 2 broadcast — that teams had five minutes to warm up before the game would be resumed after the ambulance carrying Hamlin left the field — or NFL executive vice president Troy Vincent’s stance that continuing the game was not under consideration, it’s clear that Bengals coach Zac Taylor walking across the field to speak to Bills coach Sean McDermott was the first step in prioritizing humanity.
“I’m very appreciative of Zac,” McDermott said on Jan. 5. “The NFL is such a competitive league and games are so competitive, you spend all week preparing to beat each other. … Zac quickly recognized the situation and when you can engage with the opposing coach… and Zac and I were on the same page so quickly. It was amazing how compassionate Zac was, and his players. Their captains came down to our locker room and met with our team and captains. Just an amazing show of compassion, empathy, love. It’s just so amazing because minutes before that, we were going at each other. And so my hat goes off to Zac and the Bengals.”
5. Finalists were announced this week for the Associated Press’ eight major NFL annual awards. I am not one of the 50 media members with a vote, but here is how I would’ve voted:
MVP
Finalists: Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Justin Jefferson (Vikings), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
My choice: Mahomes
Offensive Player of the Year
Finalists: Justin Jefferson, Hurts, Mahomes
My choice: Jefferson
Defensive Player of the Year
Finalists: Nick Bosa (49ers), Chris Jones (Chiefs), Micah Parsons (Cowboys)
My choice: Bosa
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jets receiver Garrett Wilson was 15th in the NFL in receiving yards even with the likes of Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White throwing him the ball this season.Getty ImagesFinalists: Garrett Wilson (Jets), Kenneth Walker (Seahawks), Brock Purdy (49ers)
My choice: Wilson
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Finalists: Sauce Gardner (Jets), Aidan Hutchinson (Lions), Tariq Woolen (Seahawks)
My choice: Gardner
Coach of the Year
Finalists: Brian Daboll (Giants), Doug Pederson (Jaguars), Kyle Shanahan (49ers)
My choice: Daboll
Assistant Coach of the Year
Finalists: Ben Johnson (Lions offensive coordinator), Shane Steichen (Eagles offensive coordinator), DeMeco Ryans (49ers defensive coordinator)
My choice: Steichen
Comeback Player of the Year
Finalists: Saquon Barkley (Giants), Christian McCaffrey (49ers), Geno Smith (Seahawks)
My choice: Brian Robinson (Commanders)
Explanation: McCaffrey returned from two injury-plagued seasons to regain elite form, even with a midseason trade mixed in. The same goes for Barkley, though he still played in 13 games (to McCaffrey’s seven) last season. And Smith came back from … what, exactly? The bench? A punch to the jaw six years ago? The real debate should’ve been between Robinson — a rookie who was shot during an attempted robbery in August, but returned to the field to rush for 797 yards in 12 games — and Giants offensive lineman Nick Gates — whose 409-day recovery from a shattered leg that required seven surgeries ended with eight starts in 10 games.
Executive of the Year*
*Named by the Pro Football Writers Association, not the Associated Press
Seahawks general manager John Schneider put together not only a franchise-shaping draft in 2022, but also a trade of Russell Wilson that will give Seattle another two draft picks this year.Getty ImagesWinner: Howie Roseman (Eagles)
My choice: John Schneider (Seahawks)
Explanation: Another great year for Roseman, but what a bounce-back for Schneider, whose once-stellar reputation had fallen on hard times, especially after his questionable 2020 trade of two first-round picks to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams. Schneider put together arguably the best 2022 draft class, including Rookie of the Year finalists Walker (second round) and Woolen (fifth round) and two rookie tackles who started (first-rounder Charles Cross and second-rounder Abe Lucas). He also pulled off an all-time trade heist of draft picks for the rapidly deteriorating Russell Wilson and didn’t panic for a replacement quarterback, rather giving the journeyman Smith a chance to shine.
