Why a rush of offseason QB trades is leaving many teams with an avalanche of regret

Maybe the NFL got it right for the first 102 seasons.

There had never been a flurry of offseason quarterback trades quite like the five that happened before the 2022 season, the 103rd in the history of the NFL. Based on the results at the almost-halfway point, it might be another century before we see the strategy tried en masse again.

“Concerns about the 2022 draft class and the Matthew Stafford trade emboldened more teams to look for a quick fix,” one league source said.

In January 2021, the Rams, who felt they had a Super Bowl-caliber roster that was held back at quarterback, traded Jared Goff, two first-round picks and a third-round pick to the Lions for Stafford. It was a hefty price to pay … until it became a bargain when Stafford followed up an average regular season with an all-time playoff run that culminated in lifting the Super Bowl MVP trophy.

The adage is that the NFL is a copycat league. Even more so because teams were staring at what became the third draft class in the last 30 years to have only one quarterback (Steelers’ Kenny Pickett) drafted in the first two rounds.

But the trades have turned out mostly disastrous. And with as many as five first-round quarterbacks considered first-round picks in 2023, expect teams in the quarterback market to favor “the traditional draft-and-develop and be wary of another team’s sale” moving forward, the league source said.

Let’s review and grade:

1️⃣ Broncos get QB Russell Wilson, fourth-round pick

Seahawks get QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks, fifth-round pick

After seven games, Russell Wilson and the Broncos have the NFL’s lowest scoring offense.Getty Images

Unless the problem is strictly with first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett — who is on the hot seat — then this has the potential to set the Broncos back five years. Wilson, who also coaxed a five-year, $245 million contract extension out of the Broncos before playing a snap, is completing a career-low 58.5 percent of his passes and is on pace for career lows in touchdown passes and quarterback rating.

A parade of former Seahawks teammates have lined up to characterize Wilson as a bad teammate for a litany of reasons.

On the other side, Geno Smith, Wilson’s former backup, is playing at an MVP-level for the first-place Seahawks (4-3) after beating out Lock for the job. Harris and Fant are starters and the Seahawks currently own the No. 6 pick in the 2023 draft from the surprisingly bad Broncos (2-5) to offset unwittingly trading their No. 10 in last year’s draft to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams.

Grades: Seahawks A, Broncos F

2️⃣ Colts get QB Matt Ryan

Falcons get third-round pick

Matt Ryan, who leads all NFL quarterbacks in interceptions, fumbles and sacks, was benched this week. AP Photo

It seemed like a low-risk, high-reward heist at the time for the Colts to get the 2016 NFL MVP, a player who led the NFL in completions in 2020 before his weapons were stripped away last season. The Falcons accidentally accelerated their rebuild by letting it be known they were interested in trading for Deshaun Watson, which insulted Ryan. That led to taking on a record $40.5 million dead salary-cap charge.

Except now the Falcons (3-4) lead the mediocre NFC South with stopgap signing Marcus Mariota, and Ryan has been benched. Ryan ranked last in the NFL in interceptions (nine), fumbles (11) and sacks (24) playing behind an offensive line that has started five different combinations in five games, prompting head coach Frank Reich to tell Ryan, “We did not hold up to our end of the bargain.”

By benching Ryan now, the Colts still are on the hook for $12 million to Ryan next season but avoid another $7.2 million becoming guaranteed if he gets injured, according to reports.

Grades: Colts D, Falcons B

3️⃣ Commanders get QB Carson Wentz, second-round pick, seventh-round pick

Colts get second-round pick, third-round pick and conditional third-round pick

Carson Wentz’s broken finger will sideline the Commanders’ new QB for a month, which may not be the worst outcome for a Washington team that had grown skeptical of his abilities.Getty Images

Despite a nightmare two-game ending that punched his ticket out of Indianapolis after one season, Wentz actually played much better for the 2021 Colts after he was acquired from the Eagles than he did for the Commanders. Wentz will miss at least a month with a broken finger, including this week’s would-be revenge game in Indianapolis (3-3-1), where owner Jim Irsay criticized Wentz on his way out the door.

Wentz was 2-4 with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions as a starter, leading head coach Ron Rivera to regretfully admit the difference between the Commanders (3-4) and the rest of the NFC East is “quarterback.” The blessing for the Commanders, who turn back to last year’s starter Taylor Heinicke, is that Wentz likely won’t meet the playing time threshold for the conditional pick to turn into a second-rounder.

Grades: Commanders D-, Colts B+

4️⃣ Browns get QB Deshaun Watson, sixth-round draft choice

Texans get three first-round picks, third-round pick, two fourth-round picks

The Browns angered many inside and outside of the NFL by agreeing to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract extension with Deshaun Watson.AP Photo

In a winning-above-all-else move, the Browns traded a king’s ransom for Watson right after a grand jury declined to indict him on 22 allegations of sexual misconduct. They doubled down by breaking the mold (and angering other NFL franchises in the process) with a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract extension needed to convince Watson to rescind his no-trade clause for Cleveland instead of closer to home in Atlanta.

It seems unlikely that the Browns, at the time, expected Watson to be suspended for the first 11 games of the season, essentially ending 2022 playoff hopes. Or that the total number of accusers with whom Watson would reach a settlement would climb to 23 by August.

Watson will be rusty after missing nearly two full seasons when he returns to practice Nov. 14, but this trade was about the Browns (2-5) winning a Super Bowl between now and 2026.

The Texans (1-4-1) look less likely to have their quarterback of the future in place (Davis Mills) than they did a year ago, but they have the draft capital to land almost any college quarterback desired because they were willing to hang onto Watson as he sat all last season after requesting a trade and then dealt him at the perfect time — before the NFL issued its discipline.

Grade: Texans A, Browns Incomplete

5️⃣ Panthers get QB Baker Mayfield

Browns get conditional fifth-round pick

In five games as the Panthers’ starter, Baker Mayfield registered the worst QB rating in the NFL.Getty Images

After acquiring Watson and losing all leverage when shopping Mayfield, the Browns agreed to pay $10.5 million of Mayfield’s salary, which he slashed from $18.8 million to $15.5 million to facilitate a trade in August.

What did the Panthers (2-5) get for their investment of $5 million plus a draft pick? As many touchdown passes as interceptions (four), a 1-4 start that included a season-opening loss to the Browns and a fired head coach owed about $40 million. Now Mayfield, who is coming back from injury, is a healthy backup (to journeyman P.J. Walker) for the first time since the first three games of his rookie year.

Not quite as bad as the Panthers’ 2021 trade of even more valuable draft picks for Jets quarterback bust Sam Darnold, who immediately had his $18.8 million contract option for 2022 exercised, but close to it.

Grades: Browns C, Panthers D

Draft a QB, hire his coach?

Bailey Zappe has played surprisingly well for the Patriots less than a year after quarterbacking Western Kentucky.Getty Images

As the Patriots played with fire Monday by benching 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones for rookie fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe and letting the home fans shower cheers on Zappe (who also was 2-0 as a starter in Jones’ injury absence), I was reminded of an April conversation with former NFL general manager Randy Mueller. Zappe was the No. 2 quarterback (behind Kenny Pickett) in Mueller’s 2022 pre-draft rankings.

After his hot hand continued in the first half Monday, though, the bloom came off of Zappe in the second half of a loss to the Bears. And now the Patriots, who reportedly will start Jones against the Jets, are caught waffling between quarterbacks, which is a testament to Zappe’s development. So, what did Mueller see in Zappe — who followed his offensive coordinator from Houston Baptist to Western Kentucky and threw for nearly 6,000 yards in his one FBS season — that others missed?

“The same things that he is doing now, he did in college,” Mueller told Post Sports+ this week. “The anticipation, the processing of information, he does a lot of it quickly. Those are critical. Physically, you are looking at a lot of similar skills to Jones.”

The greater point, however, is that Mueller, who runs the Mueller Football Advising firm, wonders what would happen if NFL teams drafting a new franchise quarterback started simultaneously hiring the offensive coordinator or position coach from his college program? Like so many ideas, it makes so much sense when you hear it that you can’t believe it hasn’t already been popularized.

“You need to do everything as an organization to make it an easier path without hurdles from where these guys have been successful to where they need to be successful in the pros,” Mueller said. “As an evaluator, you see the schemes these guys succeed in, why not make it easier on them if you believe in that system? It’s a giant learning curve as it is.”

Like a lot of young quarterbacks, Zach Wilson might benefit from having a coach who helped him develop in college continue the process in the NFL.Getty Images

It’s not a one-size-fits-all approach. There are doubts that the Air Raid offense Zappe operated would translate. But Mueller, who never had a chance to draft a franchise quarterback for the Saints or Dolphins despite being named 2000 NFL Executive of the Year, cited the Steelers’ Pickett and the Jets’ Zach Wilson as two quarterbacks who would have benefited from having a college coach at their hip in the NFL.

Maybe David Cutcliffe — who was fired as Duke’s head coach last fall — would’ve been a smart choice as Giants offensive coordinator if the head coach was anyone other than play-calling guru Brian Daboll.

Mueller’s idea sounds a little like how college basketball teams hire high school and AAU coaches to help secure top recruits — a practice that became so popular that the NCAA added a rule insisting those people are added as full-time bench assistants and not given made-up jobs. One is about achieving peak on-field performance, one is about a recruiting advantage, but the premise is the same: Comfort for the star athlete.

College game of the week to scout

No. 2 Ohio State (7-0) at No. 13 Penn State (6-1), Noon, Saturday, FOX

Pay attention when Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud throws near Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr., especially if a healthy WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the target. Porter Jr. is playing at the highest level of his four-year career, with 11 pass break-ups.

“Teams are going to love the genes, with him being the son of a very successful NFL player for the Steelers,” ESPN NFL Draft analyst Jordan Reid told Post Sports+. “The size is great, the length, the aggressiveness at the point of attack as a tackler — he has it all. It’s his technique that needs to get a little better. He’s shown more patience at the line of scrimmage. His ball production has been phenomenal — not from an interception standpoint but as far as getting near throwing windows.”

Teams already love Stroud (completing 70 percent of his passes for 2,203 yards with 28 touchdowns and four interceptions), a consensus top-three pick because he’s “so polished,” Reid said.

And then there’s Smith-Njigba, who was considered the best Ohio State receiver last season (95 catches for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns) by some scouts who graded him higher than the Jets’ Garrett Wilson and Saints’ Chris Olave, both of whom were top-11 picks in 2022. But he has played in just three games this season (five catches for 43 yards) due to recurring hamstring injuries and is uncertain again for Saturday.

If he’s cleared to play, Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba may find it difficult to create separation from Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr., though that shouldn’t stop the Buckeyes’ receiver from being drafted high next year.Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

“I don’t think it has hurt him that we can’t see what he can do,” Reid said. “He’s still going to end up being a first-round pick if he comes back and shows what he did last year. He played in the slot a whole lot last year — about 92 percent of his production came in the slot — so a big question he has to answer is, can he play on the outside? Scouts are going to be looking to see if he stays in that slot-only role.”

Parting thoughts

1. Seahawks general manager John Schneider built a team that won back-to-back NFC championships off of three straight great drafts: 2010 included four Pro Bowlers (Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate and Kam Chancellor), 2011 included a Super Bowl MVP (Malcolm Smith) and two Pro Bowlers (Richard Sherman and K.J. Wright), and 2012 included maybe the best tandem of Day 2 picks made this century (Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner).  

Then Schneider stopped valuing draft picks, lost his scouting touch and started trending toward the hot seat, especially after trading away two first-round picks (including No. 10) to the Jets for safety Jamal Adams. And now it appears Schneider, who oversees the front office for a Seahawks team that surprisingly leads the NFC West, has struck gold again.

A pair of offensive tackles (Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas) have started every game, a pair of cornerbacks are ballhawks (Coby Bryant has four forced fumbles and Tariq Woolen has four interceptions) and running back Kenneth Walker leads the NFL in rushing yards over the last three weeks. Seahawks rookies have played 2,111 total snaps, which is the most in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus.

2. As a teenager, Kyle Shanahan spent time around the greatest comeback quarterback of his era. John Elway recorded the final 11 of his 31 regular-season fourth-quarterback comebacks — tied for the second-most in league history at the time of his retirement but now ninth — playing under head coach Mike Shanahan, Kyle’s father.

Lauded for his early success with the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan has lost more than he has won in his six years with the team.Getty Images

But apparently none of that magic rubbed off on Kyle to bring around his quarterbacks. The 49ers are 1-30 when entering the fourth quarter trailing by three or more points under the younger Shanahan, according to FOX.

Shanahan is regarded as one of the best young head coaches in the league — especially because he already has sprouted a coaching tree that includes the Rams’ Sean McVay and his Super Bowl ring, the Packers’ Matt LaFleur and his historic three-year start, and the Jets’ Robert Saleh and his ongoing franchise remake — but he is just 42-46 over six seasons with the 49ers. Coaches with better resumes are fired all the time.

3. Something to keep in mind as the season of head coach firings and votes of confidence (the Lions’ Dan Campbell just received one from ownership) hits full swing. The Panthers’ win over the Buccaneers last week in interim head coach Steve Wilks’ debut replacing Matt Rhule shouldn’t have been as shocking as it seemed.

Since 2010, teams that make an in-season coaching coach and name an interim successor are now 15-9 in the first game, as compiled by teamrankings.com. It seems the immediate boost from a new voice is real because the team with the interim head coach has been an underdog in 16 of 24 games.

Then reality sets in. Interim head coaches are 111-209 combined overall since 1990, according to the Washington Post. In other words, expect the Panthers to remain in the hunt for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft.