The ‘Hard Knocks’ effect: Detroit Lions getting too much Super Bowl attention

The Lions are one of just four NFL teams that have never reached the Super Bowl. If they make it this year, it’ll cost oddsmakers a fortune.

Detroit is a quintessential long shot to win it all (125/1) just a year after posting the league’s second-worst record (3-13-1) and a fourth straight losing season overall. That hasn’t stopped bettors from piling on the Lions to win the NFC (50/1) — which, shockingly, is the biggest liability at BetMGM in that market.

One contributing factor? HBO’s weekly docu-series “Hard Knocks,” which is featuring the Lions in this year’s five-episode season. And bettors seemingly can’t get enough of them.

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There’s a lot of love for Dan Campbell in the Coach of the Year market, with the second-year boss seeing nearly a third of all tickets written to his name as of mid-August. Detroit is also the second-most-popular bet to win its division (+850) and among the most popular bets across all shops to surpass its win total (6.5), with some books seeing upwards of 90 percent of bets on the Over — which would mark this team’s first seven-win season since 2017.

The Lions were a trendy play even before “Hard Knocks,” thanks to an easy schedule and some bad luck in close games last year. Still, it’s hard to deny the effect that HBO’s annual series has had on the casual bettor across all futures markets. Has that actually worked out for bettors in the past?

The results are mixed. Since the series rebooted in 2007, the 15 teams featured in the preseason drama have gone 123-112-6 against the spread and 119-121-1 straight up. Eight of them went over their win total, and six made the playoffs. That includes the 2021 Cowboys, who entered last season with modest expectations before ripping off a 12-5 record (13-4 ATS) and winning the NFC East.

That’s more of an outlier than an expectation, though. While eight of the 15 teams went over their preseason total, only six of those teams actually had a winning record, and five of them had a projected total of 8.5 wins or higher. Of the seven teams with a preseason total of eight wins or less, only three went over their win total, and six of those seven teams finished with a losing record.

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That paints a dismal picture for the Lions, who won three games last year and have gone under their preseason total in four straight seasons. Detroit is also the second biggest Super Bowl long shot to be featured on this series in the last 15 years. Of the eight other teams priced longer than 50/1 to win it all, seven finished with losing records — winning an average of 6.5 games — with three going over their win total and only one making the playoffs.

Of course, that isn’t to say this team can’t surprise in Campbell’s second year at the helm, especially with an improved skill-position group and more explosive pass rush. Still, it’s worth thinking twice before chasing the public and betting the house on the Lions — even if they make for great TV.