The Athletics return home from a lengthy 11-game road trip to host the Pirates for a three-game interleague series starting Monday night.
The suddenly hot A’s split a four-game set with the Yankees last week and took two of three in Baltimore over the weekend, including an impressive 7-6 win on Sunday.
Can the team tied for the worst World Series odds (500/1, DraftKings) keep things going at the Oakland Coliseum?
Let’s take a look at Monday’s matchup between the Pirates and A’s and make a pick.
Pirates vs. Athletics odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | -125 | -1.5 (+140) | o8 (-115) |
| Athletics | +105 | +1.4 (-165) | u8 (-105) |
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Pirates vs. Athletics prediction
(9:40 p.m. ET)
It seems possible that Oakland’s offense trends back down to Earth on Monday night.
Pirates lefty Bailey Falter has pitched to a 3.33 ERA this season, and has achieved that mark with a reasonable underlying process.
He has pitched to an xERA of 3.97, and has been hard-hit only 34.2% of the time.
The Athletics own a wRC+ of only 82 versus left-handed pitching, and have struck-out 24.9% of the time. Their hard-hit rate of 24.8% to lefties ranks 27th in MLB.
Joe Boyle, who gets the start for the A’s, should prove to be a far better starter than his current 7.06 ERA suggests.
He owns a 4.34 xERA and 4.75 xFIP. His Stuff+ rating is 108, with elite ratings on his slider and cutter. His command (Location+ 92) has been more of a concern than expected so far in his MLB career.
Joe Boyle has a 7.06 ERA this season but faces a Pirates lineup that has struggled against righties. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images The Pirates have been awful against right-handed pitching this season, and rank 27th with their wRC+ of 83.
That makes them by far the easiest matchup Boyle has gotten, and it should allow the highly touted righty to bounce back after an ugly outing versus the Yankees.
Mason Miller is rightfully garnering a ton of attention for his incredible recent work, but the entirety of the Athletics bullpen has been impressive.
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A’s relievers own baseball’s seventh-best xFIP of 3.69, a 16.9% K-BB, and have been hard-hit only 24.2% of the time (No. 2 in MLB). Their actual ERA is excellent, too, at 2.73.
The Pirates’ bullpen ranks middle of the pack with a 4.12 xFIP and 4.02 ERA. Luis Ortiz threw 34 pitches on Sunday, but the rest of the key arms are well-rested entering Monday’s matchup.
Pirates vs. Athletics pick
This game features a quietly solid starting pitching matchup, and both are backed by quality bullpens.
The Coliseum continues to be extremely pitcher-friendly as well. A total of eight for this matchup is a touch too high, and anything better than -120 is a worth a bet on the under.
