Penguins vs. Rangers Game 1 Odds, Pick: Sidney Crosby slated to be difference maker

For the first time in five years, the New York Rangers will play a playoff game at Madison Square Garden. The Blueshirts are -135 favorites for Game 1 against the Pittsburgh Penguins, but the series odds — which have the Rangers at -115 and the Pens at -105 — suggest this best-of-7 is essentially a coin flip.

And given the way these two teams were playing down the stretch, the edge the Rangers have in goal, the way the season series shook out and the fact that the Blueshirts have home-ice advantage, the series odds came as a bit of a surprise. Most folks, especially those who don’t bet the NHL regularly, would have expected the Rangers to be a shorter favorite for the series, likely in the -135 range.

That argument, that the Rangers should be a more considerable favorite, does have merit on the surface. Not only did the Rangers finish seven points ahead of the Penguins in the standings, but New York also went 14-6-1 after the trade deadline, while Pittsburgh went 8-9-2. 

While recent form points to the Rangers, the biggest edge in this series is in the blue paint with Igor Shesterkin. This is the Russian’s NHL playoff debut, but there’s no reason to doubt that he won’t handle the pressure that comes with playing in the postseason. Shesterkin finished the season with a .935 save percentage and a +34.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). No goaltender came close to matching Shesterkin’s form throughout the season and it’s hard to imagine that Casey DeSmith will be able to outduel Shesterkin over seven games. 

But the Penguins won’t be asking DeSmith to do that. The Penguins do project to have the edge at 5-on-5, which should mean that Shesterkin will be the busier of the two netminders over the course of this series. Despite wobbling down the stretch, the Penguins finished the regular season with the eighth-best expected goals rate and eighth-best high-danger scoring chance rate. And while New York steadily improved its 5-on-5 numbers from the beginning of the season, the Blueshirts still ranked 20th in the NHL in expected goals rate after New Year’s Day and 16th since the trade deadline. 

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Sidney Crosby’s play will go a long way in deciding if Pittsburgh does end up with the better of play at 5-on-5. Crosby is coming off another fantastic season and is one of the game’s best two-way centers at this point in his career. If his line can nullify one of New York’s top lines, the scales should tip towards Pittsburgh at even strength. 

Betting against Shesterkin is never fun, but there are reasons to believe that DeSmith can provide the goaltending the Penguins need if they are going to be the better play-driving team. DeSmith posted a .927 save percentage and +5.37 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) since Feb. 1.

Bettors can make an argument for both sides of this matchup. The Rangers have plenty of signals pointing to them and there are cases to be made for the Penguins. That tells us that these games are pretty much coin flips, so Pittsburgh getting +115 has some value.

The Bet: Penguins +115