Packers vs. Titans player prop picks: Best bets for ‘Thursday Night Football’

Just when it looked as if the Packers’ offense was dead in the water, this group came to life in last week’s overtime win over the Cowboys. Can Green Bay muster that same effort against the Titans, whose defense has willed it through a tricky first half of the season?

Here are three of our favorite prop bets to target ahead of “Thursday Night Football” between the Packers and Titans, which is set for a 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Amazon Prime Video:

Risk Free First Bet up to $1,000 with NPBONUS

New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.

First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars

New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.

No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000

21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply

Packers vs. Titans TNF player prop picks

Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

This is a surprisingly low total for Rodgers, who has rushed for a combined 55 yards over the last three weeks and has historically been a scrambler when facing pressure. He’ll almost certainly be dealing with that against the Titans.

Entering this week, Tennessee ranks fifth in sacks (29) and sixth in pressure rate (25 percent) and has generated a ridiculous 77 pressures and 10 sacks over the last two weeks alone. This group has recorded at least three sacks in six straight weeks, largely thanks to the sheer dominance of its front four.

Over the last three years, Rodgers has totaled at least three rushing yards in 11 of 18 games when he’s sacked multiple times, and he’s averaging 20.7 rushing yards in his career when sacked five or more times. He likely won’t be under that type of barrage on Thursday, but even a moderate level of pressure should have Rodgers on the move at least once or twice, which is all it would take to cash here.

A.J. Dillon under 34.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

For a moment earlier this season, it looked as if Dillon was threatening to take over RB1 status in this Green Bay backfield. Those dreams have since died for the third-year back, and he’ll be hard-pressed to make headway in a tough spot on Thursday.

For one, teammate Aaron Jones has emerged as the go-to back for the Packers, turning 20-plus carries into 135-plus rushing yards in two of the last three weeks. In fact, Jones has seen at least two-thirds of his team’s snaps in four of the last six weeks, which coincides directly with a dip in playing time for Dillon over that six-week stretch.

Dillon enjoyed a majority of snaps in the first four weeks but has seen fewer than 30 plays in four of those six weeks, and he has totaled 35 or more rushing yards just three times accordingly. Now he’ll face a Titans front allowing just 85.1 rushing yards per game. This isn’t the spot to bet on a Dillon revival.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine over 22.5 receiving yards at -120 (BetMGM)

After a brief run with rookie Malik Willis starting at quarterback, regular starter Ryan Tannehill returned to action last week and should be back at the helm on Thursday, too. That’s especially good news for Westbrook-Ikhine, who has seen two of the best efforts of his career with Tannehill under center.

Betting on the NFL?

The undrafted free agent enjoyed a breakout performance last week against Denver’s elite secondary, turning five catches into 119 yards and two touchdowns to power his team to a win. That’s no fluke: the third-year wideout has seen his three biggest outputs of the season across Tannehill’s last five starts, posting at least 40 receiving yards in all three contests.

This is a game that will likely heavily feature Derrick Henry, but I’d expect the Titans to keep Green Bay honest with at least two dozen shots through the air. If even 10-15 percent of those go to Tannehill’s new favorite receiver, he should easily surpass this low bar.