Just one week into this NFL season, the MVP race already looks like one for the ages.
Preseason favorite Josh Allen (353 total yards, four touchdown passes) was unstoppable in the Bills’ Week 1 rout of the defending-champion Rams. Patrick Mahomes one-upped him on Sunday with a five-touchdown, zero-turnover day against the Cardinals. And Justin Herbert showed off his brilliant arm talent against the Raiders to round out the top three at BetMGM.
Yet, what if someone else steps up and steals this away from the preseason favorites? Four of the last seven MVP winners have entered the season at 50/1 or longer, and it usually starts with a stellar Week 1. So, with that in mind, here are three players further down the BetMGM oddsboard who are worth betting after strong season debuts:
NFL MVP odds update and Week 2 picks
All NFL MVP odds are provided by BetMGM
Lamar Jackson (14/1)
No, Jackson isn’t a long shot, but he sure feels like it with the way that everyone is talking about the top contenders in this market. Have we forgotten that the Ravens’ dual-threat star won this award unanimously just three years ago and has arguably the best supporting cast of his career?
Lamar JacksonN.Y. Post: Charles Wenzelberg
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Jackson looked the part of an MVP in Sunday’s win over the Jets, tossing three touchdowns on a day that he largely won from the pocket. If you’re still skeptical of Jackson’s ability as a passer, it’s time to give up the ruse: His first touchdown to Devin Duvernay came with just 0.11 yards of separation — the fewest on any TD pass by any player in the last four seasons — and his final touchdown to Rashad Bateman was as effortless as you’ll see from a 55-yard bomb.
It wasn’t the sharpest you’ll see from Jackson and this Baltimore offense, which looked rusty early after sitting out the preseason. That’s a scary thought for opposing defenses: the last time we saw a healthy Jackson flanked by this much talent, he ran away with MVP honors.
Kirk CousinsGetty ImagesKirk Cousins (22/1)
This isn’t necessarily the best price on Cousins, but with some shops still hanging his MVP odds at 50/1, I couldn’t help but highlight the ridiculous value out there on the Vikings quarterback.
Cousins drew some casual MVP hype entering the season thanks to new head coach Kevin O’Connell, the former hotshot offensive coordinator who brought his own twist on the McVay-Shanahan offense to Minnesota. It’s looked pretty dang good so far. Cousins threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns in a near-flawless game against a Packers defense that most believed is one of the best in the NFL.
It’s a small sample size, clearly, but Cousins currently ranks fourth in passer rating (118.9) and third in adjusted net yards per attempt (9.36), a catch-all metric that has correctly identified seven of the last 12 MVP winners. With Justin Jefferson already on pace for a historic season, Cousins looks like a serious beneficiary — and maybe even an MVP — in this new-look Vikings offense.
Betting on the NFL?
Tua TagovailoaGetty ImagesTua Tagovailoa (40/1)
I’ve been really high on Tagovailoa as he entered easily the best situation of his career under new coach Mike McDaniel — another Shanahan disciple whose creativity on offense seemed sure to ignite the immense talent that the former top-six pick still possesses.
We saw it work to perfection in Week 1: The Dolphins quarterback posted the seventh-highest yardage total (270) of his three-year career and was one of nine quarterbacks last week with zero turnovers — only the second time he’s done that in his last five games. He was brilliant as a field general, completing passes to nine different receivers and ranking among the week’s best in virtually every passing metric.
The betting market is slow to react after two seasons plagued by lousy weapons, a bad offensive line and questionable coaching. All of those areas are markedly improved this season; so is Tagovailoa, who has the talent to make a serious run at this award for one of the NFL’s most underrated teams.
