One of the most lopsided matchups of the season kicks off on “Thursday Night Football” between the undefeated Eagles and one-win Texans in a game that only a bettor could love.
Philly is dealing as a 13.5-point favorite at BetMGM, tied for the biggest spread by a road favorite this season and just shy of the largest number by any team all year. It feels like a near-certainty that the Eagles will emerge victorious in this one – but by how much?
Here’s how we’re betting Thursday’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
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Texans vs. Eagles odds (via BetMGM)
- Eagles -13.5 (-115), moneyline -750
- Texans +13.5 (-105), moneyline +525
- O/U 45.5 (-110)
Texans vs. Eagles prediction and analysis
What happens when the best team in football faces off against the worst? There really isn’t much to say about this matchup that can’t be summed up so plainly, as Philadelphia is clearly the superior team across the board on Thursday.
Jalen HurtsGetty ImagesEagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is dealing as the second choice in the MVP market (+350) through the first eight weeks of the season; Texans starter Davis Mills has the second-worst QBR (31.6) among qualified starters. Philadelphia ranks second in DVOA and net yards per play; Houston ranks dead last in both marks and near the bottom of the league in nearly every scoring and yardage metric.
So, barring a miracle, the better team will win here. But how do you fairly price out such a sizable gap? The market seems to have settled around a two-touchdown margin, which has seen mixed results this season: the Bills (-14) won by 35 points in their Week 5 clash with the Steelers, but the Buccaneers (-13.5) lost outright in a 21-3 defeat to the rival Panthers in Week 7.
It’s been a similar story over the last decade regarding two-touchdown favorites, who have sported a mostly breakeven record in recent years. We’ve rarely seen such a gap between two teams this late in the season, though, which bodes well for the road favorites.
Since 1989, we’ve seen a total of 14 undefeated teams face a team with one win or fewer in Week 7 or later. Those undefeated teams went 8-6 against the spread, including a perfect 4-0 record in the past decade. Most notably, those teams outscored their lowly opponents by an average of 15.8 points, with a whopping 10 of 14 favorites (71.4%) winning by at least 14 points.
Betting on the NFL?
Dameon PierceGetty ImagesOnly two of those six teams to suffer an ATS loss were favored by fewer than 13.5 points, while two others were favored by 17 and 22 points, respectively. That suggests that, based on past results, Philly may even be undervalued here as an undefeated favorite against easily the worst team in the league. If Hurts and Co. can build an early lead, this one should get ugly in a hurry.
