It’s a prove-it season for everyone in Queens.
For coach Mike Anderson. For his two-star point guards, Posh Alexander and Andre Curbelo. For the man who hired Anderson four years ago, athletic director Mike Cragg.
The pressure is on everyone to produce a breakthrough season. By March, it will have been 23 years since St. John’s last won an NCAA Tournament game. The Johnnies last reached the main draw of the Dance in 2015. Anderson last won 20 games in 2017-18 — when he was the coach at Arkansas — and believes a big season is on the horizon.
“[This is] probably the most talent that I’ve had since I’ve been here, more guys that fit what we’re doing,” the 62-year-old St. John’s coach said on media day. “This team here has all the components of some of the best teams I’ve had.”
There was ample hype for St. John’s at this time last year, but the Red Storm fell well short of expectations, going 2-9 in Big East games decided by single digits and failing to reach a postseason tournament. After losing top scorers Julian Champagnie and Aaron Wheeler to the professional ranks, Anderson and his staff landed top transfers Curbelo (Illinois) and David Jones (DePaul), and were one of only a select few schools not to lose a transfer. St. John’s, picked to finish sixth in the Big East by the league’s coaches, is banking on that continuity paying off.
If it doesn’t, it will be interesting how president Rev. Brian Shanley responds. Shanley, the former Providence president, didn’t hire Anderson or Cragg, and was described to The Post by someone close to him this way: “As forward-thinking and as athletic-minded as any priest/college president you’re ever going to see.”
Another disappointing season could lead to major changes in Queens.
Red Storm star guard Posh Alexander plans to take a massive step forward this year.Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images“[Shanley is] smart enough to know that he needs a big-time basketball coach/personality to make this thing work,” the source said.
Why St. John’s will make the NCAA Tournament
Alexander takes a major step forward, improving his 3-point shot and emerging as one of the better guards in the country. Curbelo finds the form from his freshman year when he was the Big 10 Sixth Man of the Year. And a more athletic, deeper team enables Anderson to use pressure on a frequent basis, making St. John’s difficult to deal with for 40 minutes.
Why St. John’s will miss the NCAA Tournament
Not enough shooting makes it easy to defend St. John’s in the half-court. Alexander and Curbelo struggle to adjust to one another until its too late in the season. The Johnnies lose to Iowa State and Florida State, and lack a major non-conference victory on their résumé.
3 Key Questions
Is the shotmaking there?
Talk to anyone about this team — opposing coaches, analysts, fans — and it’s the question everyone has: Can St. John’s shoot well enough from deep? The opposition will pack the paint, forcing the Johnnies to hit shots from beyond the arc. They weren’t a great 3-point shooting team last year, hitting only 33.5 percent from the perimeter, and lost two of their top shooters in Champagnie and Wheeler. Dylan Addae-Wusu, Rafael Pinzon and talented freshman AJ Storr are all capable, yet unproven commodities.
Can the point guards coexist?
Everyone has said the right things so far. Alexander and Curbelo are thrilled to play together, believing the other’s presence will only help them. The results will tell the story. Both players are used to playing with the ball and now they will have to sacrifice. It’s easy to see this going in either direction, the duo thriving or not meshing well at all.
Is the non-conference schedule strong enough?
It’s better than last season’s soft slate, but only marginally. Playing at Iowa State and facing Florida State on a neutral site are strong games, and potentially facing Syracuse in the Empire Classic would be fun. But the rest of the schedule leaves a lot to be desired, six opponents ranked 227th or lower by KenPom.com.
X factor: Andre Curbelo
At his best, he’s a playmaking maestro, someone who thrives in the open court and could flourish in Anderson’s uptempo system. The former Long Island Lutheran star can also get out of control, and is a non-shooter. He was terrific as a freshman at Illinois and the opposite as a sophomore, in part due to a concussion that cost him two months. St. John’s needs the freshman version.
Games to Watch:
At Iowa State (Dec. 4)
The highlight of the non-conference schedule is a trip to Hilton Coliseum, one of the most raucous arenas in college basketball. Iowa State was picked eighth in the loaded Big 12, but the Cyclones were undervalued in the preseason last year, too, and reloaded with a strong transfer class led by St. Bonaventure duo Osun Osunniyi and Jaren Holmes.
Vs. Villanova (Jan. 20)
The first of four regular-season games at the Garden for St. John’s will be on a Friday night in what should be a packed house. It will also be by far the top game of the night in the sport, a chance for Anderson’s team to make a national statement.
St. John’s head coach Mike Anderson could lift the Red Storm to their first NCAA Tournament bid.Photo by Porter Binks/Getty ImagesVs. Creighton (Feb. 18)
If St. John’s is in the NCAA Tournament mix, and I believe it will be, this game will offer the Johnnies an opportunity to boost their résumé against one of the nation’s best teams. Creighton point guard Andrew Nembhard against Posh Alexander will be fun on its own.
Anonymous Coach’s Take:
“I think Posh is a terrific player, he’s a difference-maker. He can have a big year. I love the kid. Jones can help them. He’s really good. … To me, they had two of the 10 best players in the league in the past and they were never really a threat. They aren’t good enough defensively to stop you if they don’t take the ball from you. My take would be I think they’re overrated. I’ll believe they’re an NCAA Tournament team when I hear their name called on Selection Sunday. … A lot of coaches in the league would like to take their top five or six guys, but I just don’t think they have any sort of winning identity that they’ve bought into. What would scare us is we got to handle the ball against their pressure, and they would never really go full pressure on us and then in the half court they’re easy to score on. To me, that’s the issue.”
Prediction:
20-13, sixth place in the Big East, 11 seed in NCAA Tournament, First Four exit
A lot of experts see this as a boom-or-bust team, capable of winning big or falling well short of expectations. I see a tease. St. John’s will have games it looks like a Sweet 16 team and performances that drive their fans to question their sanity. The end result will leave everyone wanting more, an annual St. John’s tradition.
