Oilers vs. Sharks prediction: Our NHL pick Friday night

The Edmonton Oilers were not supposed to be in this position.

Coming off a trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Oilers were the betting favorite to win the Pacific Division and were expected to contend for a Stanley Cup. But things in the NHL are rarely linear, and here we are more than halfway through the season with the Oilers are fighting tooth and nail to just get into the playoffs – even though Connor McDavid is on pace for an all-time season.

We look to stay red hot after correctly predicting the Seattle Kraken dominating the Boston Bruins on Thursday. The Edmonton Oilers are a -170 road favorite against the San Jose Sharks on Friday night starting at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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Oilers vs. Sharks prediction (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+)

There is a lot to consider when you’re betting an Oilers game. As bettors you want to use numbers and concrete data as much as you can to help guide you to stronger decisions, but some teams are just outliers. Edmonton is one of those teams.

If you look at Edmonton’s 5-on-5 stats, nothing jumps off the page at you. The Oilers rank 17th in shot attempt rate, 17th in expected goals rate and 10th in high-danger scoring chance rate. Those are middling numbers, but since Edmonton has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, plus a lethal power play, the Oilers can get away with it – on some nights.

But no matter how good McDavid and Draisaitl are, and no matter how good the power play is, it’s hard to trust the Oilers as big favorites because of their shaky defense and goaltending. 

Through 43 games, the Oilers rank 17th in the NHL with an .897 save percentage and currently sit 21st in the NHL in expected goals allowed at 5-on-5. McDavid and the power play can cover up those numbers on some nights, but laying this kind of price on a team built like that is a tricky proposition.

It becomes even more daunting against an underdog like San Jose. The Sharks have really struggled to get results this season, but a look under the surface shows that San Jose has been better than its 13-22-8 record would indicate. In fact, the Sharks have some of the best 5-on-5 numbers in the entire league.

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Only three teams (New Jersey, Carolina and Tampa Bay) boast a better high-danger scoring rate than San Jose this season and the Sharks also rank inside the top-10 in expected goals rate. Eight of the top-10 teams in both metrics are in playoff spots and the only other non-playoff team is Florida, which won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2021-22. 

That isn’t to say the Sharks are good, but rather that they aren’t the type of team that gets skated out of the rink every night.

Another signal pointing to the Sharks in this contest is that the penalty kill is a strength and comes into Friday night ranked as the second-best unit in the NHL. That should help against the league’s best power play.

Goaltending has been a big issue for the Sharks, but if they can get some saves they should stand a chance in this contest. 

Oilers vs. Sharks pick

Sharks +145 (FanDuel)