March Madness predictions, odds: Against the spread picks for Sunday’s Elite Eight slate

Steve Serby likes these picks, too. So that probably tells you what you should do.

Tennessee (+3.5) over Purdue

Take the points in a coin-flip game.

Sure, the Boilermakers have the best player in the country and the nation’s best 3-point shooters and a top-five all-around offense, but Tennessee’s relentless defense is built to disrupt rhythm.

The Vols already own wins over the two-highest scoring offenses in the nation (Alabama, Kentucky), the second-most efficient offense (Illinois) and a top 10 unit in the Sweet 16 (Creighton).

Zach Edey Getty Images

In November, Tennessee held Purdue 12 points below its season-average in a four-point loss, when the Vols’ second-leading scorer, Zakai Zeigler, shot 2-for-11 from the field.

Zach Edey may go off, but he will find it more difficult than usual against Tennessee’s physical frontline.

The 7-foot-4 center may also find it harder to stay on the floor, having picked up four fouls against Tennessee — one of only four times this season — in the early-season meeting.

N.C. State (+7.5) over Duke

It is incredible to remember that if Virginia’s Isaac McKneely — an 87 percent free-throw shooter — hits one from the stripe or if Michael O’Connell’s ensuing desperation, buzzer-beating 3-pointer off glass doesn’t fall, then the Wolfpack’s season would have ended more than two weeks ago.

Instead, the 10-seed in the ACC Tournament an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament is one win from the Final Four, riding one of the most improbable eight-game win streaks in the history of the sport.

North Carolina State guard DJ Horne Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

On paper, N.C. State is overmatched again. Just like when it beat Marquette and North Carolina and (checks notes) Duke.

While it’s too early to invoke Jim Valvano’s run in 1983, it is a good time to remember their Elite Eight matchup against No. 1 Virginia and Ralph Sampson.