Hot Dog Eating Contest prop bets to make since Joey Chestnut is heavy favorite

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You can’t have a July 4 holiday without … hot dogs! On Monday, the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest takes place, and after a two-year hiatus because of the pandemic, it returns to its home of Coney Island. 

The contest will feature 16 men and 12 women, but when it comes to eating hot dogs only two names matter: Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo. Oddsmakers aren’t expecting the two top hot dog eaters in the world to be challenged on Monday. Bettors have to lay -3000 ($3,000 to win $100) on Chestnut or can take the field at +1000 ($100 to win $1,000). 

While Joey Jaws gets all the love, Sudo is considered an even safer bet to destroy her competition. You have to lay -5000 on Sudo to win or bettors can roll the dice on the field at +1100. 

With the odds so insane for Chestnut and Sudo, the only real way to bet on the event is to take Over or Under total hot dogs eaten by the two competitors. Chestnut’s total is 74.5 at BetMGM, while Sudo comes in at 43.5. 

Let’s break down Chestnut first. The undisputed king of hot dog eating, Chestnut has won this event 14 out of the last 15 years. Only an upset by Matt Stonie in 2015 has interrupted Chestnut’s decade and a half of dominance. Chestnut set a world record in each of the last two years with 75 and 76 hot dogs eaten. However, that’s the only two times he’s ever gone over 74.5 hot dogs. 

Joey Chestnut hoists the trophy at the 2021 Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest.WireImage

Sudo has been almost as dominant, easily winning this event seven straight times. Ironically, Sudo isn’t the defending champion. Sudo was forced to miss last year’s contest because she was nine months pregnant. In her absence, Michelle Lesco won with just over 30 hot dogs eaten. That’s 18 fewer dogs than the year before when Sudo set the women’s world record at 48.5. 

It’s hard to go against Chestnut but if you watched the last two contests, he really had to rally late to get the world records. The Over is juiced at -140 but I think there is some value on Under +110. It’s going to come down to the final 30 seconds but I’m predicting Chestnut falls just short of 74.5 dogs this year. 

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On the women’s side, I really like Sudo Over 43.5 hot dogs. I expect her to come out strong after missing last year’s competition and it won’t surprise me if she breaks her own record of 48.5 dogs eaten. While I’m playing with fire betting against Chestnut, Sudo Over 43.5 hot dogs (-115) my top wager for the event. 

It’s the dog days of summer and there aren’t many sports to bet on right now. If you need to scratch your betting itch, kick back and wager on people eating hot dogs at an insane rate. Trust me, you’ll get the same sweat in the final 30 seconds of a hot dog eating contest as you would the final play of an NFL game with the spread still in doubt. 

Thomas Casale handicaps everything from Coney Island hot dogs to the Georgia Bulldogs for Action Network.