Food and energy inflation has been on the radar of both Main Street and Wall Street in recent months, as the price of food and energy have been surging, pushing overall inflation to a 30-year high.
For Main Street, inflation is the “new regressive taxation.” It chips away a big chunk of income, especially for low-income households, which spend a large portion of their incomes on these two items. For Wall Street, inflation is the new driver of debt and equity prices, as it pushes interest rates higher, making both stocks and bonds less appealing to value investors.
Is there any relief in sight? This week, we’ll know when the Federal Reserve and the government release three inflation numbers for April.
On Monday, the Federal Reserve will release the April Consumer Inflation Expectations (CIE) number, which measures what consumers think about future price hikes. Markets expect CIE to come out at 6.8%, up from 6.6% in March. The March CIE was heightened by a jump in gas, food, rent, and medical expenses—rent and medical expenses gains are the new additions to the inflation drivers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation at the retail or consumer level. Markets expect the April CPI to gain 8.2%, slightly below the 8.5% in the previous month. The March price gains were concentrated on food, energy, shelter, and new cars.
The easing in the CPI gains in April can be attributed to the modest gains in energy prices.
“Modest declines in gasoline prices after their shocking almost 20% run-up in March should keep the headline CPI print (+0.05% forecast vs. +1.24% previously) somewhat below that for core CPI (+0.31% vs. +0.32%),” said Deutsche Bank in a research note out last Friday. “At the component level, we will be most focused on rents and vehicle prices, but we will be looking for continued strength in travel-related categories as well as durable goods.”
On Thursday, BLS will release the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale or producer level. Markets expect the PPI to come out at 11%, slightly below the 11.2% level in the previous month. Last month’s PPI was at the highest level since 2010, when BLS began reporting this inflation metric.
In short, all three gauges are expected to show that inflation eased slightly in April from March, but it remained elevated and broadened by rent and medical care hikes.
Meanwhile, supply shocks are expected to keep inflation around for quite some time.
“If history is any guide, we may be at the beginning of a new and likely drawn out transitional period driven by negative supply shock and de-globalization,” said Deutsche Bank. The highly uncertain nature of such transition is poised to keep inflation risk premium elevated for the foreseeable future.”
And keep Wall Street on the lookout for further interest rate hikes and the prospect of stagflation, which is hardly a sound macroeconomic environment for both bonds and stocks.
