Tottenham Hotspur came into the season as the trendy outsider pick to challenge Manchester City and Liverpool in the Premier League title race. Spurs shortened all the way down to +1400 to win the outright title before the season, making them the third-favorite behind the teams that finished first and second in each of the last four seasons.
And while they have done a great job of staying within touching distance of Arsenal (24 points) and City (23 points), Spurs (20 points) are now +2200 to finish first in the EPL.
Part of that drift comes down to the fact that City look like they’re going run away with the league at a moment’s notice, while the other reason they’ve lengthened is that Spurs have looked a little inconsistent at times.
Is Tottenham a vulnerable favorite against Everton on Saturday afternoon?
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Tottenham vs. Everton prediction and pick
Everton +600 (FanDuel)
Spurs currently sit in third place in the Premier League and also boast the league’s third-best goal differential, but their predictive metrics are not as strong as the teams around them. Tottenham’s +0.4 expected goal differential is the fifth-best mark in the Premier League behind City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle, and just ahead of Brighton.
Antonio Conte’s sides are never going to tilt the field like other more possession-based elite teams do, but you need to create more separation than Tottenham currently does if you’re going to win at the necessary rate to stick around in this title race.
Djibril Sow of Eintracht Frankfurt and Pierre Hojbjerg of Tottenham Hotspur Visionhaus/Getty ImagesBecause of their sit-back-and-counter approach, Spurs can struggle against lesser sides that want to do the same thing. Tottenham prefers to play in matches where their opponents are on the front foot and they can pick off a pass or a mistake and spring forward, but when they line up against a team that’s going to set up in a defensive posture, Spurs toil away and have issues breaking them down.
West Ham, Wolves and Sporting Lisbon all fit that bill and Spurs went 1-1-1 against those three sides and even their 1-0 win against Wolves was not impressive.
Enter Everton.
Last season, Spurs absolutely rolled the Toffees, 5-0, last March in one of Frank Lampard’s first matches in charge at Everton. Lampard set up his side to attack Tottenham and Spurs were glad to absorb the pressure and punish every Everton mistake, of which there were many.
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Seven months later, this is a different Everton side. The Toffees are not going to just park the bus, but they are a more robust defensive unit with Conor Coady, James Tarkowski and Idrisse Gana Gueye at the base of the spine. Gana’s presence will be especially important as he’s one of the best players in the game at stomping out counter-attacks before they get dangerous.
Offensively, Everton should receive a boost from regular minutes out of Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The England international has struggled to stay fit since his breakout 2020-21 season, but he’s good to go and will give Everton a focal point in attack.
While all the numbers will point to Spurs, but Everton have proven a resolute bunch that’s yet to lose a match by more than one goal. The Toffees can turn this into a coin flip and that’s all you’re asking when the price is this long.
