PORT ST. LUCIE — There is no singular reason why the Mets went from 100 wins in 2022 to 75 last season.
But if you are looking for a starting point that all would not end well, it came 50 weeks ago when Edwin Diaz tore his patellar tendon celebrating a Team Puerto Rico victory in the World Baseball Classic.
Most obviously the Mets lost arguably the game’s best reliever for the season. But there also was a cascade because an elite closer impacts so much more than just the 60-ish innings he pitches.
David Robertson moved up to closer and Adam Ottavino to primary setup man and so on and so on. “Our plan was Diaz and D-Rob [Robertson] to close the game and so now it just shortens up the pen and forces [different] roles,” pitching coach Jeremy Hefner said.
There also is that sense of confidence that an elite closer provides his team, which — among other items — includes a confidence that a blown save on, say, Tuesday will not impact the pitcher or how the team feels about the pitcher if he needs to go into the game Wednesday.
And it also impacts the opponent. “You’re playing a shorter game,” Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said. “It’s no different than when [Josh] Hader was in our division [NL Central] with the Brewers. You weren’t playing a nine-inning game. Of course, you want to turn the game around on him, but it’s difficult. That is why the elite guys are the elite guys.”
Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz throws a live bullpen at Spring Training, Friday, Feb. 23, 2024, in Port St. Lucie, FL. Corey Sipkin for the NY POST Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said: “It turns you way more aggressive earlier in the game. You think about using your pinch-hitters earlier because why wait until the ninth inning when it probably doesn’t matter?”
Or as Mets bench coach John Gibbons, twice the Blue Jays manager, said: “You hear [Narco] and the most dominant guy in the game enters. No opposing manager wants to see that.”
The Mets are thrilled to have it coming into view again. Diaz threw a live batting practice session Friday. The Mets are weighing whether to have him next pitch in a minor league back-field game early next week or put him into his first MLB spring game — only a few weeks before his 30th birthday March 22.
“Watching his lives — he’s a monster,” said new bullpen mate Jake Diekman. “He throws an unhittable slider. I don’t know the metrics on his heater, but it has to be elite.”
And this is based on just batting practice sessions. It is why the Mets are so hopeful they are getting Diaz back in full. The last time that was true, he struck out 50.2 percent of hitters faced and posted a 1.31 ERA and closed the season by going 22-for-22 in save chances while allowing three runs in 43 ¹/₃ innings and turning Citi Field into a party when he entered. His greatest achievement was the incredibly rare completion of going in New York from pariah to beloved, a navigation that influenced the Mets to agree to the largest relief pitching contract in history — $102 million over five years.
The difference between the Mets’ pen with him and then without him in the first year of the contract was glaring. In 2022, Mets relievers combined for a 3.55 ERA and ranked 10th in FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement. Last season, the ERA was 4.45 and the rank was 29th out of 30 teams.
Hefner said he believes the presence of such a high-end security blanket in the ninth inning helped elevate those in front of Diaz in 2022 by — among other points — providing defined roles. So his absence had the opposite effect.
Mets relief pitcher Edwin Diaz talks to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner after throwing live batting practice at Spring Training. Corey Sipkin for the NY POST Relief pitching can be volatile, but just as a broad point, the best anyone in the current Mets bullpen finished in FanGraphs relief WAR in 2023 was 98th (Brooks Raley). It is a pen without much ability to option relievers to the minors, so there will be some inflexibility at minimum. And the starter likely to provide protective innings, Kodai Senga, will not return before May due to a shoulder injury.
Thus, Diaz’s ability to return to as near a sure thing in the ninth inning as exists to more comfortably allow his penmates to line up before him feels as central to the Mets rising from those 75 wins toward contention as his absence was influential in falling from 100.
“It means you don’t have to think about one inning,” Diekman said. “It isn’t two or three of us wondering who is going to close this game. It definitely helps because it feels to me like if we get a starter to go even five [innings], then it is up to us to get the sixth, seventh and eighth, then it is cue the trumpet player.”
