Alex Cobb should be appealing fantasy baseball option after deep numbers dive

The likelihood of finding an ace on the waiver wire this time of year is about as probable as getting sound financial advice from your dog.

The only chance you have is if one of your competitors dropped Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom or Brandon Woodruff when they went on the injured list and, for some reason, they’re still sitting there.

Otherwise, you’re looking for other ways to fill out your pitching staff. The wires may not always look pretty, but there are plenty of pitchers out there worthy of consideration, even if their numbers are far from the prettiest to look at. But looks can be deceiving.

Despite striking out career-best 10.4 per nine innings and walking a respectable 2.7 per nine, the Giants’ Alex Cobb is 3-3 with an ugly 5.48 ERA, 1.457 WHIP and .288 opponents average after taking the loss Friday against the Reds.

What those numbers don’t tell you: Cobb has been one of the unluckiest pitcher in the majors.

According to Statcast, the veteran had the seventh-lowest expected batting average (.207), the second-lowest expected slugging percentage (.306) and the lowest expected ERA (2.33) among pitchers who have allowed at least 100 balls in play.

Along with that three-plus point differential in his ERA and xERA, Cobb’s FIP (3.21), xFIP (2.69) and bloated .378 BABIP all show just how much bad luck he has had this year. He is also not allowing a ton of hard contact, with his 32.8 percent hard-hit rate ranking just outside the top 10 percent of the league.

More proof as to how insanely unlucky Cobb has been: His best pitches are his sinker (44.2 percent usage rate) and splitter (40.1 percent). Opponents are hitting .302 against his sinker, but have an expected average of .222 against it. They’re hitting .237 (with a 32.8 percent whiff rate) against his splitter, but have an expected average of .168.

Cobb’s numbers don’t look pretty on the surface, and that is why he remains available in nearly 75 percent of ESPN leagues. He is on a team that tends to get the most out of its pitchers, so the 34-year-old should be on your radar as a long-term option as things begin to correct themselves.

Here’s a look at some other starters worthy of your attention:

As a reliever this season (eight appearances), the Blue Jays’ Ross Stripling is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In nine starts, he is 3-2 with a 2.81 ERA, 32-5 strikeout-walk rate, 0.96 WHIP and .223 opponents average. In four starts this month, he is 3-1 with a 1.31 ERA (2.21 FIP), 14-3 strikeout-walk rate and .169 opponents average. Now that Hyun Jin Ryu has had Tommy John surgery, Stripling’s rotation spot seems pretty secure, yet he is rostered in just 13.5 percent of ESPN leagues.

After he moved away from Coors Field to the Rangers, a lot was expected of Jon Gray (61.4 percent rostered). Then he went 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA (4.02 FIP) and .248 opponents average over his first seven starts with the Rangers. Things are changing for the 30-year-old. He was 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA, 36-10 strikeout-walk rate and .191 opponents average in his first five starts this month.

The Brewers’ Aaron Ashby (13.3 percent owned) is on the IL with forearm inflammation (he should be back soon), he is another pitcher hurt by bad luck. He has a 4.25 ERA, but an expected ERA of 3.03, according to Statcast. His .336 BABIP, 3.64 FIP and 3.08 xFIP also back that up. He had a 3.73 FIP while going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 33-9 strikeout-walk rate over his past five starts.

Big Hits

Ryan Mountcastle 1B/OF, Orioles

In his first 21 games this month, he hit .305 with six homers, 17 RBIs and a .995 OPS. He has hit .299 with 10 homers, 27 RBIs, 24 runs and .920 OPS in 37 games since May 5.

Andrew Heaney SP, Dodgers

Before taking the mound Saturday, he was 1-0 with a 0.59 ERA, 23-4 strikeout-walk rate and .161 opponents’ average over his first three starts.

Luis Robert OF, White Sox

Entered Friday on a 13-game hit streak, going 20-for-57 (.351) with one homer, 16 RBIs, 10 runs, three stolen bases and a .833 OPS in that span.

Shohei Ohtani SP, Angels

Won three straight decisions while maintaining a 0.43 ERA. In those starts, he struck out 25, walked five and opponents hit .129 against him.

Big Whiffs

Eugenio Suarez 3B, Mariners

In 17 games from June 6 through Thursday, he was 12-for-64 (.188) with two homers, four RBIs, 27 strikeouts and .604 OPS. His 32.3 percent strikeout rate ranked fifth in the majors entering the weekend.

Eric Lauer SP, Padres

Allowed 17 earned runs over his past 17 ¹/₃ innings (8.83 ERA) while walking six and allowing eight homers. Opponents hit .288 against him.

Daulton Varsho C/OF, Diamondbacks

Had 13 hits in 75 at-bats (.173) in his first 18 games this month. He walked just once, had one homer, six RBIs, 20 strikeouts and a .448 OPS.

Lucas Giolito SP, White Sox

Gave up 30 runs (27 earned) over his past five starts while going 1-3 with a 9.47 ERA. Opponents hit .357 with nine homers in that span.

Check Swings

• If you’re looking for relief, Balitmore’s Jorge Lopez had not allowed an earned run over his previous 17 innings entering Saturday. He was 0-1 with 16 strikeouts, one walk, .107 opponents’ average and went 9-for-9 in save chances. He is rostered in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues.
• Atlanta’s Charlie Morton was 3-3 with a 5.47 ERA and a 46-22 strikeout-walk rate over his first 10 starts, but was 1-0 with 3.60 ERA and 40-4 strikeout-walk rate and .183 opponents’ average over his past four starts.
• In five games since being called up on Monday, Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz hit .273 with seven RBIs (at least one in each of his first four games), one stolen base and four runs. He was the most added player in ESPN leagues this week. The fourth-most added player was Detroit top prospect Riley Greene — who hit .350 with five walks, five runs, just three strikeouts and .830 OPS in his first six games.

Team Name of The Week

The Life of Bryant