Kansas Speedway wasn’t a track that produced many longshot winners, but that has changed over the last three years.
Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace swept the 2022 Kansas races for 23XI Racing. It wasn’t a huge long-shot win, but not many saw it coming. Perhaps we’ll see a similar result for this year’s race.
My long shots came close last week at Dover, with Alex Bowman showing top-three speed and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. running around 10th for much of the day.
Hopefully, we’ll have more luck Sunday with my long-shot picks for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas.
NASCAR Cup Series: Top odds to win AdventHealth 400
| Driver | Winner | Top-3 Odds | Top-5 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +380 | +110 | -200 |
| Denny Hamlin | +400 | +115 | -190 |
| Tyler Reddick | +600 | +175 | -135 |
| William Byron | +700 | +200 | -110 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +750 | +200 | -105 |
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AdventHealth 400 long shots
To win: Ryan Blaney (+2200, FanDuel)
It’s hard to call defending Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney a long shot, but the odds don’t have him among the top contenders. That’s likely due to Ford’s struggles on 1.5-mile tracks.
If any Ford driver can break through and capture the win, it’ll be Blaney. He ranks sixth among all drivers in total speed for high-speed 1.5-mile tracks since the start of 2023, including a third-place finish at Vegas this season.
Blaney’s Kansas finishes leave much to be desired, but his speed ranking is eighth or better in three of the last four races.
It’s only a matter of time before Blaney breaks through for his first win of 2024. He has the best chance to break Ford’s winless streak.
Ross Chastain top-3 finish (+575, BetMGM)
Ross Chastain was one of my favorite picks last week, but he let me down with a disappointing performance at Dover. I’m back on Chastain at a much longer price.
Chastain has looked good at Kansas, finishing seventh or better in three of the last four races. That includes a top-five finish in last year’s Spring race.
Las Vegas and Texas are the biggest comparisons for Kansas. Chastain finished fourth at Vegas and would’ve finished second at Texas if he didn’t get wrecked on the final lap.
He’s had the fifth-best speed ranking at Kansas since 2022. Let’s hope he doesn’t have another stinker like Dover.
Alex Bowman has finished 11th or better in nine of his last 10 races at Kansas. Getty Images Alex Bowman top-5 finish (+325, bet365)
Alex Bowman was another one of my favorite picks for Dover. He ran as high as second but ultimately fell back to score an eighth-place finish.
Bowman has been fairly consistent at Kansas, finishing 11th or better in nine of his last 10 races. That stretch includes a trio of top-five finishes. Bowman led a race-high 107 laps en route to a fourth-place finish in the Fall 2022 race.
He’s been good but not great on 1.5-mile tracks since 2023. His speed ranking has him in the 10-12 range, but Hendrick Motorsports is typically fast in Kansas.
Bowman may need some help, but a top-five finish is within reach.
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Austin Dillon top-10 finish (+900, DraftKings)
It’s painful to bet on Austin Dillon because he’s having the worst season of his career. You could argue Dillon has been the worst full-time driver in 2024.
Still, this is a long-shot article and we don’t need Dillon to set the world on fire. He just needs a top-10 finish, and he’s been in contention over the last seven Kansas races.
If you take out last year’s Fall race, Dillon has finished between 10th and 14th in six straight Kansas races. His lone top 10 this season came at Texas, another high-speed 1.5-mile track.
He’s qualified 11th or better in three straight Kansas races. Another strong start could go a long way to a top-10 finish.
