If the past few days taught us anything, it’s that we should probably expect several upsets in the NCAA Tournament, which last year saw 16 vs. 1 and 15 vs. 2 matchups blow up brackets.
Here are three top-25 fade candidates I think have a good chance of exiting March Madness early:
2024 March Madness upset predictions and fade candidates
No. 16 Kansas
It was a quick one-and-done exit from Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament, as the Jayhawks look to return to full health ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee) and Hunter Dickinson (shoulder) make up nearly half of the team’s total scoring output.
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They are the primary shot creators and also key defenders for Bill Self’s team.
Without them, this is merely a bottom-tier roster in the Big 12.
Who knows how effective the duo will be come tournament time?
That’s a good enough reason to stay away from taking KU to make it out of the Sweet 16 alive. This is a team that ranks outside the top 300 in bench minutes and looks to attack downhill at a consistent rate.
This is not the same Kansas team that took down Kentucky, Tennessee and Connecticut in non-conference play.
Jamari McDowell #11 of the Kansas Jayhawks will need to lead the way for shorthanded Kansas. Getty Images The Jayhawks have lost four of their past five, and have just two wins away from home since January.
It’s the lack of offensive firepower around McCullar and Dickinson that give me pause here.
Dajuan Harris is nothing more than a facilitator, and KJ Adams didn’t quite take that step forward as expected.
We saw KU struggle to guard a team like BYU that spaced the floor and pulled Dickinson away from the 3-point line. If his shoulder is any issue on the offensive end and he plays at less than 100 percent, this team is on upset alert.
Lack of depth has been an issue as Kansas progresses. That’s a big reason why McCullar and Dickinson sat out rather than trying to rush back for the Big 12 Tournament.
There are too many red flags here surrounding an average roster for me to back KU as a high seed.
No. 20 BYU
BYU, which ranks 350th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home rankings, is a volatile team, taking more than 50 percent of its field goal attempts from 3.
The Cougars are more than capable of beating the Big 12’s best, but they’ve also put up plenty of duds due to shooting variance, losing by 16 to Oklahoma and even 10 to Oklahoma State.
They have an experienced rotation that sits inside the top 30 in minutes continuity. The addition of Aly Khalifa and having a 6-foot-11 big like Noah Waterman able to stretch the floor can give BYU a leg up and create separation and spacing.
But the BYU defense ranked 11th in the Big 12 in efficiency during conference play. The Cougars foul at one of the league’s highest rates and don’t force many turnovers. That leads to extended possessions and a proneness to sustained runs.
I am not looking to back BYU in the tournament given the Cougars’ struggles away from Provo. Tack on its volatility and over-reliance from beyond the arc and this has all the makings of an upset.
Brigham Young Cougars guard Spencer Johnson. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images No. 15 South Carolina
Like BYU, South Carolina is a No.6 that is extremely vulnerable to being upset early against Oregon.
The Gamecocks rank outside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They slow the game to a halt and prefer a snail’s pace. Lamont Paris deserves all the credit in the world for turning the program around, but his team has over-performed throughout the season.
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Aside from being able to use its size on the interior with BJ Mack and Collin Murray-Boyles creating second-chance opportunities, the offense often struggles.
South Carolina ranks around 200th in 3-point percentage and doesn’t draw fouls at a high rate.
And given the Gamecocks’ slow pace, an opponent that gets hot could quickly put them on upset alert.
South Carolina deserves an at-large bid, but this is a team ranked outside the top 40 by most college basketball analytics rankings. Don’t be surprised to see a Round of 64 exit from the Gamecocks.
