2022 NFL season awards predictions: Odds and picks for MVP and more

It’s almost here!

The countdown to the 2022 NFL season is getting to the territory of mere hours as the Bills and Rams are set to kick off Thursday night. Week 1 bets are on the horizon – but you still have a couple days left to put in season-long futures before the markets close.

Award futures are often tough to predict, but the long odds can provide huge profit margins if you hit just one (especially if you don’t load up on chalk). It’s maybe unlikely that you’ll hit one of one, but if you sprinkle on a few different awards, it’s possible to walk out of the NFL Awards ceremony in February with a nice chunk of change.

The Post’s gambling editors, Erich Richter and Jeremy Layton, are here to give you picks for just about every award you can bet on. Due to New York’s gambling laws, you are not allowed to place bets on MVP, Coach of the Year or the other awards within the Empire State, but you are allowed to do so in New Jersey and a majority of the other states where gambling is legal.

Without further ado, here are the picks:

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2022 NFL MVP

Erich: Lamar Jackson +2000 (BetMGM)

A proven NFL quarterback, Lamar Jackson was making even bigger strides as a passer in 2021 before injury. In Week 5, Jackson threw for 400 yards and rushed for 62 more. He was as low as +1000 to win the MVP last season, fifth-best odds at the time and ahead of the eventual winner, Aaron Rodgers. 

In 11 full games as the starter, Jackson threw for 2,865 yards (260.45 yr/gm) and ran for 762 yards (69.3 yr/gm). Those rushing numbers are the second-best of his career, and the passing yards are significantly better than his MVP season in 2019. 

Health plays a factor for the mobile quarterback, as it derailed his season last year. However, with his contract nearing expiration, there are no motivation shortages here, as he hopes to land a fully guaranteed deal like Deshaun Watson. Lastly, it would be extremely difficult to deny him the MVP award if he throws for 4,000-plus yards and runs for 1,000-plus yards (which he was projected to do last year with 17 games played).

Jeremy: Justin Herbert +1000 (WynnBET)

Herbert threw for 5,000 yards last year in his second season in the league, and the first under head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The 24-year-old now enters his second year in the system and returns most of his key skill position players, while the Chargers drafted Zion Johnson in the first round to fix a brutal right side of the O-line. Herbert and the Chargers could be in shootouts nearly every week in the stacked AFC West, which should lead to some gaudy numbers. Most importantly, he’s one of the NFL’s young golden boy quarterbacks – if he finishes the season with 5,300 yards and 45 touchdowns, how could you deny him the hardware?

If you want a longer shot, Trevor Lawrence at +7500 is way too appealing considering the coaching upgrades in Jacksonville, and the pedigree the No. 1 overall pick entered the league with.

Offensive Player of the Year

Erich: Ja’Marr Chase +3000 (BetMGM)

There is concern Ja’Marr Chase might not be as efficient as he was last season. However, as a rookie, Chase went scorched earth on the NFL to end the year. From Week 7 through Week 18, Chase was third in the NFL in total yards (902) and fourth in receiving touchdowns (8). The only two players above him were Justin Jefferson and eventual OPOY winner Cooper Kupp.

Those two are odds-on favorites to win the award this season, so Chase at +3000 is a solid value play further down the board. Chase should improve in Year 2 of his NFL career and if the Bengals offense is as explosive as 2021, he’s going to be near the top of every statistical category.

Jeremy: Saquon Barkley +8000 (BetMGM)

Let’s get weird with this one. The OPOY award generally goes to the best non-quarterback in the league – the last passer to win was Patrick Mahomes during his otherworldly 2018 season. At the height of his powers, Barkley was in the conversation for best non-QB offensive player in the NFL – and reports are that the Penn State star is looking like his explosive self for the first time after a series of injuries.

The Giants hired an offensive-minded head coach in Brian Daboll, signed Mark Glowinski to play guard and drafted Evan Neal to play tackle, so they should be a much better offense than they were under Joe Judge. And when you look at the Giants’ roster, he may not only be their best running back but also their best receiver – especially considering how often Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard get injured. What if Barkley returns to form and just goes bananas this year, catching 80-100 passes and going for over 2,000 scrimmage yards? At 80/1, it’s worth a sprinkle.

Defensive Player of the Year

Erich: Khalil Mack +4000 (FanDuel)

Let’s load up on Chargers futures. This team is stacked on both sides of the ball, thanks to some impressive offseason acquisitions – perhaps none more important than Khalil Mack. We saw what Von Miller did last year for the Super Bowl champion Rams. The hope is that Mack can do the same thing for the Chargers.

Mack played only seven games last year for Chicago, but let’s throw that out for a second. In 2020, he played in all 16 games, second among all edge rushers behind only JJ Watt, and played 894 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. At 40/1, banking on a return to form is a fine bet. Playing for the lifeless Bears hasn’t been the place to showcase talent over the past couple years, but on a contender, Mack could have a vintage season left.

Jeremy: Maxx Crosby +4000 (Caesars)

Outside of a stray Stephon Gilmore win in 2019, every winner of this award since 2014 has been a defensive lineman or an edge rusher (read: guy who can rack up the sack numbers). T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald (+700) are the chalky favorites, but they’re also the last two winners. Myles Garrett, not far behind at +750, feels primed to win one, but as all these are narrative awards, I wonder if a great season could overwhelm what will certainly be a negative vibe around the Browns this year (especially when Deshaun Watson returns).

Maxx Crosby, a bit further down the list at +4000, was PFF’s second-graded edge rusher in 2021 and led the NFL in pressures, QB hits, and hurries. He “only” had 10 sacks, but sack totals are often a bit random and he could be due for some (positive) regression. Plus, now he has Chandler Jones lurking on the other side of the defensive line to attract attention. The only non-elusive, non-mobile quarterback in his division is his own (Derek Carr), so that may make sacks harder to come by in AFC West games, but if he gets that sack number to the high teens, he’s certainly in play for this award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Erich: Treylon Burks +1500 (WynnBET)

The odds for this have been slowly increasing, which makes this bet significantly more appealing. At varying points this offseason, Burks was a +900 favorite.

Interestingly, the preseason overreactions have jacked Romeo Doubs and George Pickens up to the favorites among wide receivers. Kenny Pickett could be a good bet, but let’s wait for him to actually obtain the starting role before we target something like that. We know Burks’ role will be significant replacing A.J. Brown, and while there may be a learning curve, no one should be surprised if he comes on strong. 

Jeremy: Kenny Pickett +900 (Caesars)

This is a “don’t overthink it” type situation. We’ve all seen this movie before – the Steelers “want” Pickett to sit, but with every Mitch Trubisky incompletion, the calls will grow louder, before he’s out there on the field in Week 4. This award doesn’t skew as quarterback-heavy as MVP – only six of the last 12 winners have been QBs – but there aren’t many great skill-position candidates near the top. The second-favorite is Dameon Pierce, a fourth-round rookie running back on the Houston Texans. All of the other rookie QBs were drafted in the third round or later and have tricker roads to playing time (though Malik Willis, at +4000, is worth a sprinkle as well). If Pickett plays well – and that’s the real question, not if he will play – he will be the front-runner.

Betting on the NFL?

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Aidan Hutchinson +650 (FanDuel)

A chalky favorite here, but this is partly baked into the fact that Kayvon Thibodeaux is out the first several weeks with a knee injury. According to many, Hutchinson should have been the top pick in the draft.

Moreover, pass rushers have won this award for three straight years, so he is the most appealing target for a reason.

Jeremy: Travon Walker (+850, Caesars)

In a similar vein to Defensive Player of the Year, this award tends to skew towards edge rushers – the last three winners were Nick Bosa, Chase Young and Micah Parsons (who is listed as a linebacker but had over 300 pass rush snaps in 2021, leading the entire position by over 100). The three favorites are obvious – Giants’ Kayvon Thibodeaux (out with an injury), Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson and Jaguars’ Travon Walker (the No. 1 pick). In general, I view these guys as pretty even, and would just go with the longest-priced option; right now, that’s Walker.

Walker flashed some serious upside early in the preseason, looking unblockable in the Hall of Fame Game before Jacksonville rested starters as the exhibition games went on. O-lines will have their hands full against the Jags’ sneaky good DL combo of Walker, Josh Allen and Arden Key, which could lead to one-on-one opportunities for the rookie – and chances to stack up those all-important sacks. If you want a longer shot, I am very bullish on George Karlaftis (he is +2000), and he could arrive early this year with the Chiefs.

Comeback Player of the Year

Erich: Christian McCaffrey +900 (Caesars)

What makes Derrick Henry a significantly better candidate than Christian McCaffrey, to the point that he’s +500? CMC has barely played these last two years, so the Panthers star is arguably a better story than Henry to win the award. And as detailed by my counterpart in his latest running bank rankings, he is a bonafide league winner in fantasy football. The hope should be his volume decreases slightly on runs up the middle, but is still elite around the goal line and on third downs.

If those things happen, McCaffrey should be the frontrunner for this award based on opportunity, talent and storyline. We already know just how electric CMC is when he gets the rock.

Jeremy: Brian Robinson +500 (FanDuel)

Call it the Alex Smith effect. If Robinson steps foot on the field this year after being shot multiple times in an attempted robbery, he will win. This is another narrative award (all of them are, really) and if he makes it back to the field and has any semblance of success, the narrative will be overwhelming. I don’t care that he has never played a down in the NFL – a comeback is a comeback. This award has no rules; Philip Rivers won it in 2013 for simply being better than he was the year before. I usually like going longer shots with award futures, but this one makes too much sense.

Coach of the Year 

Erich: Pass until later in the season

Lots of narratives are involved here. I successfully bet Mike Vrabel at +300 in Week 17 last year. You’ll hear it when there is a bet.

Jeremy: Brandon Staley, Doug Pederson, and Kevin O’Connell

Since Erich won’t give you one, I’ll give you three. There are two major trends when it comes to this award: A) your team needs to have 10 or more wins (no coach has won in a full season with less than 10 since 1993), and B) your team needs to outperform preseason expectations. It certainly skews towards rookie coaches as well, though those guys usually hit the first two triggers (as Matt Nagy did in 2018, Kevin Stefanski did in 2020, et al.)

If you held a gun to my head and asked me who the Coach of the Year in the NFL would be this year, discounting any of the odds, I’d say Brandon Staley, who is the favorite at +1300 (a better price than a couple weeks ago, when it was +1000). The Chargers have arguably the best roster in the NFL, and if they win the loaded AFC West behind some fourth-down cajones from Staley, he’d surely be a top candidate. Kevin O’Connell (+1600) brings a much-needed offensive mind to the top coaching job in Minnesota, and if he does something special with this loaded group of playmakers (will it really be that hard to do with Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook?), Minnesota should be a playoff team in a mediocre NFC. As for outperforming expectations, no one is expecting anything out of the Jaguars – but if Trevor Lawrence really is Him, Jacksonville may have a better chance to make some noise in a terrible AFC South than we acknowledge. Let’s all remember that Doug Pederson (+1800) won a Super Bowl, and if he can right the ship after the Urban Meyer catastrophe, he’s a candidate almost by default.