After cashing one of our three NBA bets against the spread on Monday, we’re back in action on Tuesday for a five-game sampling full of home favorites at manageable prices – though not all of them are worthy of your bet in such a short chalk spot.
Here’s a look at which teams we’re betting at BetMGM, highlighted by a pair of red-hot squads worth backing and an inflated total with injuries working against it:
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NBA Monday odds, picks (via BetMGM)
- Grizzlies-Pelicans under 228.5 points
- Jazz -4.5 vs. Knicks
- Nets +1.5 @ Kings
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies prediction and analysis
This total is higher than most, which would seem to make sense in theory: these teams have combined to score 231.3 points per game and cash the over 53.8% of the time entering Tuesday. But injuries threaten to upend what would otherwise profile as a high-scoring affair.
Grizzlies star Ja Morant (ankle) isn’t on the injury report for this one, but he missed Sunday’s loss to the Wizards when his team scored just 92 points. Teammate and secondary scorer Desmond Bane (toe) won’t suit up on Tuesday. At the same time, Pelicans superstar Zion Williamson (foot) is also iffy to play, which would be a devastating blow to New Orleans’ offense.
Then there’s the potential return of Jaren Jackson (foot), who is planning to make his season debut on Tuesday after missing the first 14 games of the season. Memphis’ defense has struggled mightily without its anchor down low; if he plays as expected, that will go a long way toward deflating the total in a game littered with injured scorers.
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans pick: Under 228.5 points (-105, BetMGM)
Collin SextonGetty ImagesJazz vs. Knicks prediction and analysis
We’ve already broken this game down in detail in our Top Play for Tuesday, so we won’t go too deep into this one. But it’s not hard to see why the Jazz are the better bet here.
Utah enters Tuesday ranked fourth in net rating (+4.6) with a top-five offense and top-10 defense, buoyed by a stranglehold of the 3-point line on both ends of the court. On the other side, the Knicks have been horrid from deep and can’t seem to get a rhythm offensively with Julius Randle eating up low-efficiency possessions. This one shouldn’t be close.
Jazz vs. Knicks pick: Jazz -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Betting on the NBA?
Kevin DurantNBAE via Getty ImagesKings vs. Nets prediction and analysis
We made a killing fading the Nets early in the year, and we’ll likely do the same once suspended star Kyrie Irving returns to action. But this team has reinvented itself without its ball-dominant guard on the court, and it’s made all the difference.
Since Irving’s suspension on Nov. 3, Brooklyn has shockingly posted the NBA’s best net rating by far (+13.1) en route to a 4-2 record with three blowout wins. The key has been a complete about-face on defense – after ranking dead last in defensive rating (118.3) through their first eight games, the Nets lead the league in defensive rating (99.7) and have limited opponents to an NBA-best 3.7% from the floor with Irving sidelined.
The Kings have ripped off three straight wins ahead of Tuesday, all by six or seven points, but they could struggle to keep that going against a clearly inspired Brooklyn squad that is finally turning its season around. Don’t be surprised to see an outright upset here.
