MLB odds, picks, predictions: Mets still favored to reach the playoffs

Despite falling under .500 following a four-game losing streak, the Mets are still favored to make the playoffs by Vegas oddsmakers. 

Is that fair?

Do the Mets deserve this much recognition from sportsbooks?

Is there value in betting on or against the Mets to make a postseason run? 

Let’s dive into New York’s playoff odds and break down if there’s any value. 

MLB Odds: Mets to Make the Playoffs

Yes: (-170, Caesars Sportsbook)

No: (+142, Caesars Sportsbook)

To recap the season so far: The Mets are 30-32, 7.5 games back in the NL East and 2.5 games back of the third NL Wildcard spot (held by Pittsburgh).

The 14-15 month of May, comprised of a -16 run differential, was not kind to New York’s chances. 

The (-120) odds imply a 54.6% chance that the Mets will make the playoffs, while the (+100) odds imply a 50% chance the Mets will miss the playoffs (the odds don’t add up to 100% because of the vig, or hold, that the sportsbooks bake in). 

Ultimately, the Mets are technically favored to make the playoffs, but it’s very close to a coin flip. 

Projection systems are similarly “confident.” Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA standings give the Mets a 55.2% chance to clinch a berth, while FanGraphs’s metrics project a 48.5% chance.

However, it’s worth mentioning that Baseball Reference’s numbers give the Mets a 30.6% chance to make the playoffs, indicating huge value in fading the Mets in this betting market. 

How to bet on Mets playoff chances

Despite the projection systems, I’m more bearish than bullish on the Mets. 

I’m not sure Vegas nor the projection systems are accounting for how challenging the next part of the schedule is for the Mets. I believe every number considers the strength of schedule, but New York’s next few weeks are brutally challenging. 

By opposing winning percentage, the Mets have the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule in MLB and the toughest among NL East teams.

They still have seven games left against the Diamondbacks, eight against the Braves, and four against the Yankees. 

After the Mets wrap up this series against the Braves, their upcoming schedule includes the following sets:

• Three games at the Pirates (32-29)
• Two games vs. the Yankees (36-26)
• Three games vs. the Cardinals (26-37)
• Three games at the Astros (36-26)
• Three games at the Phillies (29-32)
• Four games vs. the Brewers (34-28)
• Three games vs. the Giants (31-30)
• Three games at the Padres (29-33)
• Three games vs. the Dodgers (35-27)

That brutalizing stretch of baseball takes the Mets through July 16. Even the supposedly “easy” sets come against deceptively talented teams like the Cardinals and the Padres. 

The Mets could come out of that stretch of schedule in an even-worse spot than they are now, and the odds for them to miss the playoffs would move significantly. 

I’m also worried about the Mets’ pitching staff. 

The back end of the rotation is already weak between Carlos Carrasco (5.94 ERA) and Tylor Megill (4.40 ERA), and Kodai Senga has seen some regression following a hot start. 

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The bullpen hasn’t been good, either. We can’t trust this unit without Edwin Diaz, who’s still on the 60-day IL. 

The top of the rotation is supposed to be the best in baseball, the saving grace.

Yet Max Scherzer’s velocity and Justin Verlander’s strikeouts are way down. The two have a combined ERA of 3.70. 

The two also have a combined age of 78.

If one of those aging flamethrowers gets hurt, the wheels could fall off for the Mets, especially during this brutal stretch of schedule. 

I took a play on the Mets to miss the playoffs at (+150) earlier this year, and I still see value in the current number.

I have little confidence in the Mets as currently constructed, and I am very concerned about what might happen in the coming weeks.  

The Play: Mets to miss the playoffs (+142, Caesars Sportsbook)