The MLB season is often affected by weather, and it is never more prevalent than in the first month.
This week has reinforced that with multiple postponements across the league.
On Thursday, the Tigers and Mets will be dealing with weather issues yet again after being postponed each of the last two days. They have a doubleheader scheduled, but playing two will be challenging.
Mother Nature is also threatening the matchups between the Pirates and Nationals, leaving us with three games that look safe to target on PrizePicks.
Let’s jump into some of my favorite projections to attack on this small Thursday slate.
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Tanner Bibee (Guardians vs. Twins) fewer than 6.5 pitcher strikeouts
Bibee is a well-above average starting pitcher. That said, he struggled mightily in his first start of the season.
He dealt with an uncharacteristic bout of wildness against the Athletics, walking five in just four innings. He threw 89 pitches and registered four strikeouts, but this was a spot he should have dominated against one of the weakest offenses in baseball.
On Thursday, Bibee gets a matchup against the Twins, who struck out at the highest rate in the league last season. That is the only reason this projection is as high as it is, but it is too hard to trust him given the control issues he had in his opener.
Tanner Bibee faces the Twins on Thursday. AP On top of his recent form, we need to factor in that Bibee registered only a slightly above average 24.1% strikeout rate in 2023. While this is a prime strikeout matchup for him, he only surpassed 6.5 strikeouts in eight of 25 starts last season.
The Twins are also have a much more potent offense than the Athletics, so Bibee will need to be sharper than his last start to even have a chance of beating this projection.
Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals vs. White Sox) more than 8.5 hitter fantasy score
The Royals shortstop took a big leap forward in 2023 after a solid, yet unspectacular rookie season. He improved his wRC+ from 98 in 2022 to 115 last season.
Still just 23 years old, Witt seems intent on realizing the potential that got him drafted second overall in 2019 and ranked among the very best prospects in the game prior to his debut.
The 2024 season has started with a bang for the five-tool Witt, who has posted four multi-hit games in the six he has played so far. He has already accumulated seven extra-base hits and two stolen bases.
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On Thursday night, he gets a matchup against Mike Soroka and a White Sox bullpen that projects as one of the worst in the league. Soroka struggled in his first start of the season, allowing seven hits and four runs in just five innings of work.
Witt has multiple paths to rack up fantasy points given his power and speed profile. He has cleared his 8.5 fantasy score projection in four of six games to begin 2024.
Willson Contreras (Cardinals vs. Marlins) more than 6.5 fantasy score
Despite being the division favorites coming into the season, the Cardinals are off to a rough start.
However, they did begin the season on the road against two difficult NL West opponents in the Dodgers and Padres, and they are also dealing with multiple injuries.
Their best hitter so far in the young season has been Contreras.
Wilson Contreras is a tough guy to strikeout. Getty Images The former Cubs catcher had a tumultuous start after signing with Cardinals as a free agent in 2023, but he ultimately rebounded and put together an excellent campaign with a 127 wRC+. He was particularly great against left-handed pitching, as he posted a .241 ISO and .398 wOBA.
On Thursday, he gets a matchup with Marlins lefty Ryan Weathers, who managed just a 14.5% strikeout rate against right-handed batters in 2023. Weathers also surrendered 1.89 HR/9 last season, and he has not yet lived up to the potential that made him a first-round draft pick.
Contreras has a fairly low bar to clear here given his success against lefties last season, and he should be able to get it done against a young pitcher who has yet to realize major league success.
