While most sports bettors and fans were glued to last Thursday’s broadcast of the NFL draft, I attended my first Major League Baseball game in nearly two years. It felt great to be back at the ballpark. It felt even better to score a major underdog winner with the Brewers, who took down the Dodgers in a battle of two of the NL’s best teams. The result seemed improbable to the Average Joe, as Milwaukee played as a +185 home underdog with manager Craig Counsell late in the day naming a little-known pitcher to oppose reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer.
Counsell’s decision is exactly what steered me the Brewers’ way, however. The pitcher named to start the contest was Eric Lauer, known as a Dodger killer. He was always tremendous against Los Angeles while he pitched for the Padres. In fact, his record and key stats against the defending World Series champions top the accompanying pitcher-vs.-opponent matchup list. In true Lauer fashion, he controlled the dangerous Dodgers lineup, holding it scoreless for five innings before turning it over to the talented Milwaukee bullpen. The Brewers won 2-1, and it was a great validation of how putting in work can lead to betting profits.
You see, I remembered on the way to the game that Lauer had appeared on my top pitcher-vs.-opponent matchups in the past, and clearly Counsell put a lot of stock into this information himself as he searched his roster for a starter that night. It proved a crucial move as the Brewers won what would have seemed a throwaway game, setting the table for three straight wins over the Dodgers.
The moral of this story is that how pitchers fare against certain opponents is indeed an important part of handicapping baseball. In the first of this two-part report, I will go through pitcher-opponent matchups that recently have produced at least a 100 percent return on investment for bettors, each with a minimum of five starts against that team. Next week I will share some of the worst matchups.
I have also listed potential schedule spots where you might be able to take advantage of the findings before the season gets too far along. Be sure to mark your betting calendars, as some of the matchups start this week and others extend into October.
Eric Lauer (Milwaukee):
Last eight starts vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Team Record: 7-1, +10.6 units, ROI 132.5%
Individual Record: 6-0, 47 ²/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 1.89, WHIP 1.049, K’s/9 8.68
Team Run Support: 3.6 RPG
Schedule Spots: Oct. 1-3
Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay):
Last five starts vs. New York Yankees
Team Record: 5-0, +6.45 units, ROI 129.0%
Individual Record: 3-0, 24 innings
Key Stats: ERA 2.63, WHIP 0.917, K’s/9 13.5
Team Run Support: 4.8 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 11-13, May 31-June 3, July 27-29, Oct. 1-3
Sandy Alcantara (Miami):
Last six starts vs. Philadelphia
Team Record: 5-1, +7.35 units, ROI 122.5%
Individual Record: 4-1, 38 ¹/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 2.82, WHIP 1.382, K’s/9 7.98
Team Run Support: 3.5 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 18-20, May 24-27, June 29-July 1, July 16-18, Sept. 3-5, Oct. 1-3
Taijuan Walker (Mets):
Last seven starts vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Team Record: 6-1, +8.57 units, ROI 122.4%
Individual Record: 3-1, 31 ²/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 4.83, WHIP 1.452, K’s/9 9.66
Team Run Support: 6.7 RPG
Schedule Spots: Aug. 13-15, Aug. 19-22
Madison Bumgarner (Arizona):
Last six starts vs. New York Mets
Team Record: 6-0, +6.9 units, ROI 115.0%
Individual Record: 4-0, 43 innings
Key Stats: ERA 1.88, WHIP 1.00, K’s/9 7.95
Team Run Support: 5.7 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 7-9, May 31-June 2
Jon Lester (Washington):
Last six starts vs. New York Mets
Team Record: 6-0, +6.9 units, ROI 115.0%
Individual Record: 5-0, 39 ²/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 1.81, WHIP 1.109, K’s/9 7.26
Team Run Support: 8.2 RPG
Schedule Spots: June 18-20, Aug. 10-12, Aug. 27-29, Sept. 3-6
Kyle Hendricks (Cubs):
Last five starts vs. Washington
Team Record: 5-0, +5.4 units, ROI 108.0%
Individual Record: 2-0, 27 ²/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 3.58, WHIP 1.337, K’s/9 9.11
Team Run Support: 5.4 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 17-20, July 30-Aug. 1
Stephen Strasburg (Washington):
Last nine starts vs. Philadelphia
Team Record: 9-0, +9.45 units, ROI 105.0%
Individual Record: 6-0, 53 ²/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 2.85, WHIP 1.155, K’s/9 10.23
Team Run Support: 5.3 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 11-13, July 4-6, July 22-23, July 27-29, Aug. 2-5, Aug. 30-Sept. 1
Walker Buehler (Dodgers):
Last five starts vs. San Francisco
Team Record: 5-0, +5 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 4-0, 28 innings
Key Stats: ERA 2.89, WHIP 1.214, K’s/9 11.25
Team Run Support: 8.2 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 21-23, May 27-30, July 19-22, July 27-29, Sept. 3-5
Gerrit Cole (Yankees):
Last five starts vs. Detroit
Team Record: 5-0, +5 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 5-0, 31 ²/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 1.71, WHIP 0.884, K’s/9 13.64
Team Run Support: 7.4 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 28-30
Gerrit Cole (Yankees)
Last six starts vs. Los Angeles Angels
Team Record: 6-0, +6 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 5-0, 36 ²/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 2.45, WHIP 1.118, K’s/9 14.24
Team Run Support: 7.2 RPG
Schedule Spots: June 28-July 1, Aug. 30-Sept. 1
Domingo German (Yankees):
Last five starts vs. Baltimore
Team Record: 5-0, +5 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 5-0, 32 innings
Key Stats: ERA 1.97, WHIP 0.844, K’s/9 8.16
Team Run Support: 8.8 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 14-16, Aug. 2-4, Sept. 3-5, Sept. 14-16
J.A. Happ (Minnesota):
Last six starts vs. Baltimore
Team Record: 6-0, +6 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 2-0, 27 ¹/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 5.93, WHIP 1.537, K’s/9 7.9
Team Run Support: 6.3 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 24-26, May 31-June 2
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers):
Last seven starts vs. Mets
Team Record: 7-0, +7 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 5-0, 45 ¹/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 3.18, WHIP 0.949, K’s/9 10.92
Team Run Support: 6.9 RPG
Schedule Spots: Aug. 13-15, Aug. 19-22
Corey Kluber (Yankees):
Last seven starts vs. Detroit
Team Record: 7-0, +7 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 7-0, 54 ¹/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 0.83, WHIP 0.699, K’s/9 9.77
Team Run Support: 5.1 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 28-30
Aaron Nola (Philadelphia):
Last five starts vs. Colorado
Team Record: 5-0, +5 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 4-0, 32 ¹/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 3.06, WHIP 1.175, K’s/9 11.69
Team Run Support: 5 RPG
Schedule Spots: Sept. 9-12
Max Scherzer (Washington):
Last five starts vs. Cincinnati
Team Record: 5-0, +5 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 5-0, 34 innings
Key Stats: ERA 1.06, WHIP 0.824, K’s/9 14.56
Team Run Support: 6.2 RPG
Schedule Spots: May 25-27, Sept. 23-26
Stephen Strasburg (Washington):
Last 15 starts vs. Miami
Team Record: 15-0, +15 units, ROI 100.0%
Individual Record: 12-0, 99 ¹/₃ innings
Key Stats: ERA 1.54, WHIP 0.886, K’s/9 11.05
Team Run Support: 6.1 RPG
Schedule Spots: June 24-27, July 19-21, Aug. 24-26, Sept. 13-15, Sept. 20-22
