Having broken down our statistical modeling strategy for the AT&T Byron Nelson, it’s now time to begin sharing some best bets.
We’ll begin as always with my favorite derivative selections for the week. This week, I’ve identified three selections that provide bettors the most value in terms of a plus-money payout.
So without further delay, here are my selections: one top-10, one top-20 and one top-40 pick. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 – Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish (+150)
Although this is only JT’s second appearance at the Byron Nelson, my model likes him quite a bit this week.
The 2017 PGA Champion rates out second or better in the field in my four most important categories – SG: approach, SG: T2G, SG: Par 4’s and Birdies or Better Gained – and is no worse than 25th in the field in the two remaining categories over his last 36 rounds. That makes him first overall in the field in my 36-round model.
Additionally, Thomas shows up in Dallas second overall in my 24-round model and third overall in my 50-round model. Plus, dating back to February, Thomas has now recorded a top-10 finish in four of his last six events.
Justin ThomasGetty ImagesLastly, his approach numbers have proven incredibly solid recently. The University of Alabama product has now gained strokes on approach in 14 consecutive events and has gained strokes tee-to-green in 13 of his last 14 events.
Finally, over his last 50 rounds where scoring has come “easy,” Thomas ranks first in the field in SG: total and first in SG: T2G. For those reasons, I would play Thomas at +125 or better for a top-10 finish.
Best Bet #2 – Sam Burns Top-20 Finish (+115)
Frankly, I’m shocked you’re getting this good a number on Burns, who was runner-up at this event last season.
Not only does he have that history going in his favor, but Burns also rates out quite well in my model. He’s second overall in the field over his last 36 rounds and first overall in the field in my 24-round model. Just in the latter model, Burns ranks out first in the field in SG: T2G, Birdies or Better Gained and SG: Par 5’s.
Furthermore, he’s second in SG: Par 4’s in that same model and third overall in approach. In fact, if you bring in the 12- and 50-round models, Burns is no worse than second overall in the field.
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Although Burns missed the cut in his most recent start at The Masters, the preceding three events saw strong finishes for the LSU product. Burns went 9-26-1 at the Arnold Palmer, Players Championship and Valspar Championship, the latter of which shows somewhat similar course traits to TPC Craig Ranch.
Lastly, just like Thomas, Burns rates out very well in rounds played on easy scoring setups. Across his last 36 qualifying rounds, Burns is second in the field in SG: Total and ranks top-10 in both SG: T2G and SG: Approach.
For those reasons, I would play Burns up to -110 for a top-20 finish.
Best Bet #3 – Martin Laird Top-40 Finish (+175)
This is the hidden gem of the group as my model rates out Laird quite highly.
The Scottish international is 13th overall in the field across his last 24 and 36 rounds before dropping to 14th overall in my 12-round model. Even if you consider his last 50 qualifying rounds, Laird only drops to 29th in the field.
Just in terms of the 36-round model, though, Laird’s game should fit this course well. He’s fourth in the field in SG: Par 5’s, eighth in SG: T2G and 13th in SG: approach over those 36 qualifying rounds. Plus, he’s 21st in the field in SG: total over his last 36 rounds on easy setups.
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Even though Laird finished 61st in last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, there are positive signs in prior events. For example, Laird gained strokes on approach in five straight and seven of his last eight events before that start and posted a top-40 finish in five of his preceding 10 events to the Wells Fargo.
Further, although he was 61st at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson, I’m going to chalk that up to a poor putting performance as Laird ranked 19th in SG: Approach and 29th in SG: T2G that week (per datagolf.com).
Lastly, Laird has demonstrated success on correlative courses since that performance. He posted a T11 at the Shriner’s and a T29 at the Valspar, both courses that correlate with TPC Craig Ranch.
