John Deere Classic odds, picks: Four bets for first-round leader

We’re down to our final set of bets for the John Deere Classic, which mean it’s time to throw some darts!

None of our four FRL fliers found the board last week at the Travelers, leaving us with two cashes in four tournament attempts. But, you live and learn and (hopefully) we’ll nail another one this week at TPC Deere Run.

So, without further delay, here are the four players I’m backing to finish Thursday atop the leaderboard. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

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Best Bet #1 – Denny McCarthy (+2500)

Although he missed the cut last week at the Travelers, McCarthy has played incredibly well of late.

He finished in a tie for 7th at the U.S. Open after tying for fifth at the Memorial, where he finished only a shot off the first-round pace set by six players. Plus, McCarthy ranks 32nd on tour this season in first-round scoring average and ranks 11th in strokes-gained: total over his last 12 opening rounds. Shrink the sample size down to his last eight rounds and McCarthy jumps up to second in SG: total while leading the way in SG: putting.

Although McCarthy has missed two straight cuts at the John Deere, he’s gained with the putter in two of those three events and finished only three back on Thursday after 2018’s opening round.

Plus, McCarthy is a top-20 player in birdies or better gained, bogey avoidance, and SG: Par 5’s across his last 12 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards. If he can keep that putter going, expect a strong opening round from the American Thursday.

Best Bet #2 – Patton Kizzire (+6500)

The last few weeks have challenged Kizzire immensely, but now he finds himself at a friendlier course.

In three appearances at the John Deere, Kizzire has never finished worse than 30th and, most importantly, has fired an opening round under par in all three. Although he’s never been the first-round leader at this track, his underlying stats suggest he’s a good candidate this year.

Across his last 12 opening rounds on tracks under 7,200 yards, Kizzire ranks third overall in the field. While he’s 90th in fairways gained, he’s 10th or better in all of the following categories — SG: approach, GIRs gained, bogey avoidance, SG: Par 5’s, and putting from five to 10 feet.

He’s also 12th in birdies or better gained and ranks 23rd on tour this season in first-round scoring average. Further, he’s 12th in the field in SG: Total just at TPC Deere Run.

As a result, I’m willing to back Kizzire at what I believe is a great price.

Best Bet #3 – Matt Wallace (+6500)

This bet is purely based on my statistical model as Wallace has no course history to show for himself at TPC Deere Run.

However, Wallace should be a great fit at this course. Over his last eight opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, Wallace ranks third overall in the field. Most importantly, he leads the field in birdies or better gained and ranks second in SG: Par 5’s.

Furthermore, he’s ninth in putting from 10 to 15 feet, 10th in bogey avoidance, and 23rd in SG: approach. Plus, just his last four opening rounds on such courses have seen Wallace shoot 67, 67, 65 and 65.

Wallace’s data holds up if you expand the data set too. Across his last 24 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, he’s seventh in the field in SG: total and eighth in birdies or better gained.

So, much like Kizzire, I believe Wallace is priced a touch too high and am willing to back him in this spot.

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Best Bet #4 – Sam Ryder (+12000)

Unlike Wallace, Ryder is worth backing (almost) based entirely on course history.

In three appearances at the John Deere Classic, Ryder has two top-20 finishes — including a runner-up in 2018 — and has gained a combined 15.5 strokes putting in those three appearances.

That said, Ryder does model relatively well too. In his last 12 opening rounds on courses under 7,200 yards, he’s 13th overall in the field. Most notably, he’s sixth in the field in birdies or better gained and fifth in SG: Par 5’s. He’s also 16th in putting from 10 to 15 feet and 30th in strokes-gained: approach.

Plus, in three opening rounds at the John Deere Classic, Ryder has two 67’s to pair with a 66 and, although he’s never held the FRL, he has given himself a chance with each appearance.

For all those reasons, this price is absolutely worth a few bucks as I would have it rated much lower.