The New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes will meet in Round 1 of the playoffs for the second spring in a row.
Carolina won last season’s series, 4-2, but it was a lot closer than that scoreline would suggest, with the Hurricanes winning two overtime games and getting the rub of the luck.
None of that matters now, though, as these two teams are in very different spots than they were this time last year.
Most notably, the Hurricanes are the Stanley Cup favorites at most sportsbooks.
Carolina was considered a heavyweight last spring, too, but there were question marks in goal and up front, especially because Andrei Svechnikov missed the entire postseason.
Those questions seemingly have been addressed thanks to Carolina’s acquisition of stalwart forward Jake Guentzel and the re-emergence of Frederik Andersen in goal.
Guentzel added some serious upside to an already-deep forward group that features Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas and Svechnikov.
Carolina’s 5-on-5 metrics are always near the top of the league, but with Guentzel in the fold you would feel more confident that the Hurricanes can turn their dominant possession numbers into tangible results.
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Carolina’s power play has also greatly improved, which is not a small note considering the Islanders rank 32nd in penalty killing.
Carolina’s defensive corps is a deep, dynamic group that is well-balanced and equipped to play the uniquely chaotic brand of hockey the Hurricanes enjoy.
Carolina is wholly deserving of its status as Cup favorite.
It is a complete team and if Andersen carries his exceptional form into the tournament, it’s going to be a tough out. But, just because Carolina is the more likely winner of this series doesn’t mean it is a good bet.
The Hurricanes currently sit at -350 to beat the Islanders in a best-of-7 series.
Jake Guentzel #59 of the Carolina Hurricanes skates with the puck against the Boston Bruins at the TD Garden on April 9, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. NHLI via Getty Images That price carries an implied probability of roughly 75 percent when you strip out the vig.
Is that underestimating the Islanders?
The big question regarding the Islanders is which is the real version of this team?
Under Lane Lambert, the Islanders were abysmal in their own zone and were an infuriating roller coaster for their fans.
Things have changed in a big way under Patrick Roy, who has the Isles playing a strong brand of defensive hockey that is among the best in the NHL at limiting scoring chances against.
Throw in some strong goaltending from Semyon Varlamov and you can start to see some paths to success for the Isles in this series.
While the Islanders’ defensive improvements are now well-documented, what is being overlooked is that certain individuals have found their form at the right moment.
Kyle Palmieri has been a monster down the stretch, while Anders Lee and Pierre Engvall look like a reinvigorated duo since they joined Jean-Gabriel Pageau on the third line.
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Kyle MacLean has been a revelation as the fourth-line center, too.
Just how much have the Islanders closed the gap between themselves and the Hurricanes over the last month?
Though we can’t be sure of that answer just yet, we can feel pretty confident that the Islanders will be a handful.
A physical, hard-working, defensively astute team with terrific goaltending will never be an easy out and that raises the floor on the Islanders.
So while it’s a monumental task, upsetting the Hurricanes, it’s not out of the question and that makes the +280 payout on the Islanders worthy of a look.
