It is often difficult to predict closer situations on a weekly or, in some case, a daily basis. Few closers are guaranteed to keep the ninth-inning gig for the entire season.
But, sometimes jobs become more secure as a pitcher takes an opportunity and makes the most of it, like Emmanuel Clase in Cleveland (six saves in seven tries), Alex Reyes in St. Louis (9-for-9, but more on him later) or Ian Kennedy in Texas.
After a 2019 season in which he recorded 30 saves in 34 opportunities, Kennedy was 0-2 with no saves and an ugly 9.00 ERA over 15 appearances for the Royals in 2020.
Kennedy wasn’t the Rangers’ closer this year until Jose Leclerc had Tommy John surgery in March and Matt Bush was sidelined after being diagnosed with a flexor tendon strain in his right arm. Kennedy has taken that opportunity and excelled.
Through his first 14 appearances, Kennedy owned a 1.93 ERA with 20 strikeouts and one walk. He entered Friday having allowed one earned in his past 10 appearances and none over his past six.
Kennedy ranked second to San Diego’s Mark Melancon for the most saves in the majors, as he was a perfect 9-for-9 in save opportunities with career-best marks in walks per nine (0.64) and strikeouts per nine (12.86). His career-high 16.8 percent swinging-strike rate is miles above his career mark of 9.4 percent.
The craziest part: Kennedy is doing this predominantly with his fastball, using his four-seamer 80.7 percent of the time. For reference, he used the pitch 49.8 percent of the time with the Royals last year. And he is throwing hard, too, with an average velocity of 94 mph and a max velocity of 97 — both in line with the speed he was throwing in 2019.
Opponents are hitting .182 against his fastball with 12 strikeouts, no walks and a career-high 17 percent swinging-strike rate. He also has a career-high putaway percentage (28.8) with the pitch.
Kennedy’s FIP (2.32), xFIP (2.36) and xERA (2.40) are indications the veteran’s been slightly lucky, but it is nothing that should prevent Kennedy from manning an RP spot on your roster.
For fantasy owners, there is only one concern with Kennedy, who is surprisingly still available in more than 40 percent of ESPN leagues: Texas is unlikely to contend for a playoff spot, which means there is a good chance Kennedy could be traded to a contender (likely destroying his closer value). That is when you should have Joely Rodriguez (1-1, 2.35 ERA, 11.7 K/9) waiting in the wings.
But until the Rangers deal Kennedy, don’t let his useful numbers go to waste.
A look at some other closer situations around the league:
Yimi Garcia is 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA and .222 opponent average, and 5-for-6 in save chances since taking the ninth-inning gig from Anthony Bass in Miami. He is owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues.
Arizona’s Stefan Crichton and Kansas City’s Josh Staumont are far from flashy, but both have three saves in three shots and appear to have taken over their respective roles. Both are owned in 30 percent or less of ESPN leagues.
Alex Reyes (82 percent owned) is locked in as the Cardinals’ closer, and he has not allowed a run over his first 15 appearances. Roto Rage is concerned with his 7.0 walks per nine, 3.36 FIP, 5.21 xFIP and 4.27 xERA — all indicators that there will be regression. Giovanny Gallegos (2.04 ERA, 11.7 K/9) is an option if the bottom were to fall out on Reyes.
Jake McGee entered Friday 7-for-8 in save chances as 12.8 strikeouts per nine for the Giants, but had a 12.71 ERA, one blown save and .379 opponent average over his previous six outings. Since April 18, Tyler Rogers has a 1.13 ERA, two saves and a .207 opponent average. Rogers could see more time in the ninth, but McGee is still the long-term preference.
Alex Colome and Taylor Rogers are playing hot potato with the closer role in Minnesota, with neither seemingly wanting to keep the gig. This could go from a two-horse race to a four-horse race if Tyler Duffey or Hansel Robles get involved. Either way, it’s an iffy situation from every angle.
Kendall Graveman (0.00 ERA, three saves, 8.8 K/9) has outpitched Rafael Montero (3.86 ERA, four blown saves). Montero, however, has the higher ownership rate in ESPN leagues, and the Mariners tend to be go with the best reliver based on the situation.
After the Rays placed their saves leader, Diego Castillo, on the IL this week, Pete Fairbanks, Jeffrey Springs, Ryan Thompson, Hunter Strickland and Andrew Kittredge will battle for endgame duty. That means, you should stay far away from this guessing game.
Big Hits
Dylan Cease SP, White Sox
Is 2-0 over his past two starts, allowing no runs and just four hits while striking out 20. Opponents are hitting .095 against him in those starts.
Raimel Tapia OF, Rockies
Entered Friday on a six-game hit streak, going 11-for-24 (.458) with one homer, nine RBIs, two stolen bases and a 1.042 OPS.
John Means SP, Orioles
Pitched a no-no on Wednesday, and is 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA, 27-4 strikeout-walk rate and .070 opponent average over his past three starts.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS/3B, Rangers
Raised his average from .203 on April 19 to .273 after going 22-for-63 (.349) with three homers, seven RBIs, four stolen bases and a .971 OPS over his past 16 games before Friday.
Big Whiffs
Eugenio Suarez 3B/SS, Reds
The 2018 All-Star had four hits (two of which were home runs) in his previous 42 at-bats (.095) before Friday. He walked twice and struck out 17 times with a .374 OPS in that 11-game span.
Miguel Cabrera 1B/DH, Tigers
In his first 10 games since returning from a biceps injury, he was 3-for-37 (.081) with one homer, two RBIs, 18 strikeouts and a .312 OPS.
German Marquez SP, Rockies
Since picking up a win on April 17, he is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA, eight walks and a .348 opponent average. He has allowed 12 ER over his past 4 ²/₃ innings (23.14 ERA).
Ty France 2B, Mariners
Average dropped from .325 on April 26 to .246 after going 1-for-31 (.032) with nine strikeouts and a .221 OPS in that nine-game stretch.
Check Swings
- After going 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA in his first two starts, Oakland’s 27-year-old lefty Cole Irvin is 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA, 29 strikeouts (over 25 ¹/₃ innings) and a .232 opponent average. He is walking just 1.29 per nine innings, the fifth-best rate in the majors behind Zach Eflin, Walker Buehler, Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom.
- More on A’s pitchers: Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-3 with a 5.79 ERA, won’t be answering the “Call of Duty” in “MLB The Show 21” after breaking his pinkie playing video games.
- Though Albert Pujols hasn’t exactly been fantasy relevant the past few seasons, seeing him being released by the Angels came as quite the shock (despite hitting .198 with a .622 OPS). From 2001-19, the 10-time All-Star and three-time MVP hit .300 while averaging 35 homers, 109 RBIs and a .927 OPS.
- Kyle Hendricks, who owns a 6.07 ERA this season, has allowed a league-high 11 home runs, 10 of which have been hit over his past four starts.
Team Name of the Week
Rhys Lightning
