Data angles, which take records and statistics from one season and provide insight as to which teams might be better or worse the next season because of them, are often extremely predictive.
For example, Tampa Bay was a glowing example of a potential breakout team at this point last year. I wrote in March 2020 that “the Bucs were due for a resurgence … even before Tom Brady.” That proved to be prophetic, and I capitalized with a pair of great futures wagers. I hope we’ll find similar results in this year’s homework.
Why is analysis of the quality and quantity of teams’ won-lost records by various means so impactful? I have always felt that the NFL is unlike any other league in that teams can make quick positive or negative turnarounds from year to year. Going from first to worst or worst to first is not unusual, and unlike the NBA or NHL, you can see seasons in which more than half the teams that qualify for the playoffs are different from the previous campaign. I believe this parity contributes to the league’s popularity. Though exceptions exist, such as New England’s long run of success, franchises aren’t typically fixed in long eras of winning or losing. Tampa Bay’s emergence last year from non-playoff team to Super Bowl champion stands as proof.
It benefits the bettor greatly to know which traits lead to teams improving or declining quickly. What is the typical résumé of a team that improves greatly from one season to the next? Those who can find the answers can take advantage of not only the futures wagers and season win totals before the season, but also the point spreads in the early weeks of the season before oddsmakers can catch up.
Read through the findings the next couple of weeks and make your own assessments of the teams you think might not be what we saw in 2020. Then factor in the free-agent transactions and draft results — and head to the betting window.
Teams with unusually high/low totals of close wins:
- In 2019, Seattle’s 10 close wins, defined as eight or fewer points, were the most by any NFL team in 29 years. In that span, the 31 teams that managed eight or more close wins combined for an average decline of 2.97 wins the next season.
Teams affected in 2021: Chiefs, Seahawks
- The past three seasons have shown a trend against teams that win a lot of close games. In that span, 34 teams won six or more games by eight points or fewer. Just four improved the next season, with an average drop of 2.38 wins.
Teams affected in 2021: Bears, Browns, Chiefs, Vikings, Steelers, Seahawks, Titans
Teams with unusually high/low totals of close losses:
- Since 1998, 30 teams have suffered eight or more close losses in a season, defined as eight or fewer points. Their combined average improvement the next season was a hefty 3.77 wins, with 28 improving.
Teams affected in 2021: Falcons, Panthers, Texans
- There have been 61 teams since 2008 that went into the next season after having lost at least six games by eight or fewer points. Of those, 49 improved their won-lost records, including 27 by four or more wins. The average improvement of the 61 teams was 2.93 wins. The Colts and Buccaneers improved by four wins from 2019 last year.
Teams affected in 2021: Falcons, Panthers, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, Chargers
Teams with unusually high/low totals of blowout wins:
- The last team to win at least nine games by double digits and improve its won-lost record the next year was the Broncos from 1997 to ’98. Since then, the average win decline of the 29 teams that did so was minus-4.1.
Team affected in 2021: Ravens, for the second straight season
- None of the past 15 teams that recorded at least six blowout wins, defined as 20 or more points, improved its won-lost record the next year. Combined, the average win decline of those 15 teams was minus–3.3.
Teams affected in 2021: None. Four blowout wins was the highest NFL total in 2020, shared by the Buccaneers and Ravens.
- Eight teams over the past 26 seasons have won six or more games but none by double digits. The 2020 Raiders became the first of those teams to improve the next year, but combined the teams have averaged a decline of 2.25 wins.
Teams affected in 2021: None. Denver was closest with a 5-11 record and zero double-digit wins last season
- Teams that won five or fewer games, none by double digits, have shown significant improvement the next campaign. In fact, since 2007, the league has had 23 such teams, and 21 improved the next season by an average of 4.04 wins.
Teams affected in 2021: Broncos, Jaguars, Jets
Teams with unusually high/low totals of blowout losses:
- In the past 22 seasons, just four teams went 8-8 or worse while suffering zero double-digit losses. Three of the four won at least four more games the next season, including the Buccaneers a year ago.
Teams affected in 2021: None. Obviously, this is rare.
- Since 2001, 19 teams have gone 7-9 or worse and suffered zero blowout losses. These teams are natural candidates to improve, and 17 of the 19 did just that by an average of 3.17 wins.
Teams affected in 2021: Falcons, Vikings
- As another key sign of how teams can quickly improve from dreadful seasons, over the past 21 years, 33 teams have lost at least nine games in a season by double digits. Of those, 28 improved the next season by an average of 4.07 wins, including Miami (+4) and Washington (+5) a year ago.
Teams affected in 2021: Jaguars, Jets
- Since ’98, eight double-digit-win teams suffered all their losses by double-digit margins. Those teams dropped dramatically the next season by an average of 5.25 wins.
Teams affected in 2021: None
Teams based on playoff results:
- Just two of the past 27 teams that lost in the Super Bowl improved their won-lost record the next season, with an average win decline of 3.4. Those that had seven or more double-digit wins in their Super Bowl-losing seasons declined by an average of 4.0 wins.
Team affected in 2021: Kansas City, but the Chiefs had just five double-digit wins.
- Alternatively, the past 28 Super Bowl champions were far better off in maintaining success, with only a 1.2-win drop the next season and an average won-lost record of 10.8-5.2. Just two finished under .500. The most dominant of those teams, those outscoring opponents by 140 or more points, had an average won-lost record of 11.1-4.9 the next season.
Team affected in 2021: Tampa Bay, though the Bucs were just shy of the latter mark at a 137-point differential.
- No team in the past 29 years that went 13-3 or better and failed to make the Super Bowl improved its won-lost record the next season, and just three equaled their marks. The average win decline was 3.86.
Teams affected in 2021: Bills, Packers
Teams whose won-lost records are trending:
- All 10 teams since 2000 that had won fewer games than the previous season for three straight years have improved their won-lost record by an average of 4.8 wins.
Teams affected in 2021: None. Carolina is the closest and is on an 11-7-5-5 win-total slide.
- Since 2002, only one of the 13 teams that improved their records in three straight seasons continued that trend. The average drop was 4.2 wins, and the average record was 6.5-9.5.
Team affected in 2021: Seahawks
- All 13 teams since 2005 that won at least seven games fewer than the previous season rebounded to improve their won-lost records by an average of 4.54 wins.
Team affected in 2021: 49ers
- Not quite as dramatically as that, only one of the past 26 teams since ’98 that won at least seven games more than the previous season improved in the next campaign, with an average win drop of 3.65.
Team affected in 2021: None. Five more wins than 2019 was the highest total from last season, accomplished by Cleveland and Miami.
