How NFL bettors can separate Super Bowl contenders from pretenders

How NFL bettors can separate Super Bowl contenders from pretenders

LAS VEGAS — When time expired on the NFL regular season, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers squeezed their way into the playoff bracket by hitting a long-shot parlay that was full of surprises and sweat.

The best was saved for last. It was a movie script that ended with a wild night in Vegas, where the Raiders beat the Chargers 35-32 in overtime in arguably the most dramatic game of them all.

“That one was really entertaining,” DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello said. “It was absolutely insane.”

The Raiders and Steelers are in the AFC playoffs, and the Chargers and Colts are out. It will be tough for Super Wild Card Weekend to top the insanity of Week 18, which nearly finished with the Raiders and Chargers playing to a tie that would have eliminated the Steelers.

“We had a great day, and it was a monster [wagering] handle,” said Avello, who attributed some of the betting boom to the first weekend of online wagering in New York.

Only the top seeds in each conference — Green Bay (NFC) and Tennessee (AFC) — get a bye in the first week of the postseason. BetMGM lists the Packers as the Super Bowl favorites at 4/1 odds, followed by the Chiefs (5/1), Bills (7/1), Titans (15/2) and Buccaneers (17/2). The playoff field appears to be a wide-open race.

Derek CarrDerek CarrGetty Images

“There’s no team to me that really stands out,” Avello said. “But I think Green Bay is playing as well as anyone.”

The Packers’ loss to the Lions was only a footnote to a crazy Week 18. Aaron Rodgers passed for two touchdowns in the first half and sat out the second half of Detroit’s 37-30 win that had no impact on the playoff picture.

It was a different story in Jacksonville, where the Colts let a wild-card spot slip away in a 26-11 loss to the lowly Jaguars. Indianapolis’ flop as a 15-point favorite opened the door for the Steelers, who staged a comeback to beat the Ravens in overtime. Roethlisberger’s career was extended only after the Raiders knocked out the Chargers.

In the big picture, Pittsburgh’s presence in the playoffs is expected to be brief. The Steelers are the biggest underdogs in action this weekend by getting 12.5 points at Kansas City.

“I don’t want to watch Pittsburgh, and watching Ben Roethlisberger play at this time in his career is painful,” said VSiN analyst Michael Lombardi, a former NFL executive. “But the Colts don’t deserve to go to the playoffs.”

Derek Carr’s two touchdown passes Sunday night helped the Raiders wrap the regular season with a four-game winning streak. Carr now hits the road in a quick turnaround.

A tie with the Chargers would have sent the Raiders to Kansas City. Instead, the postseason kicks off Saturday with the Raiders as 6.5-point underdogs at Cincinnati. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow led the Bengals to a 32-13 win in Las Vegas on Nov. 21.

Ben RoethlisbergerBen RoethlisbergerGetty Images

“It’s a nice draw for the Raiders to get Cincinnati and a quarterback who’s inexperienced in the playoffs,” Avello said. “The Raiders are probably as hot as anyone in the playoffs.”

In the second game of Saturday’s AFC doubleheader, the Patriots and Bills clash for the third time this season after the road team won the first two meetings. Buffalo is a 4.5-point home favorite.

“There’s going to be Patriots action,” Avello said. “The Bills are winning but beating bad teams and do not seem to not be running on all cylinders right now.”

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers start their march toward a Super Bowl repeat as 8.5-point home favorites against the Eagles. Tampa Bay won the first meeting 28-22 on Oct. 14 in Philadelphia.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys crushed the Eagles in Week 18 and enter the playoffs with the league’s best spread record at 13-4.The only game of Super Wild Card Weekend that’s not a rematch from the regular season is 49ers-Cowboys. Dallas is a 3-point home favorite, but the line opened slightly higher before immediate sharp action showed on San Francisco.

The Cardinals are 10-7 ATS this season, including 8-1 on the road. Arizona is a 4-point road ‘dog to the Rams, who backed into the NFC West title and limp into the playoffs with a quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who’s riding a negative turnover trend.

The Super Bowl will be in Los Angeles, barring a COVID-19 curveball, and the Rams are getting 10/1 odds to win the title on their home field.