Not all trends are the same. Style trends, for instance, come and go with the seasons. Language trends are constantly evolving — like, “rad” is “cheugy,” but “cheugy” is “bussin’.” No cap. But, statistical trends? We think those are “lit.”
One thing about stat trends: They tend to point back to averages — highs regress back to the mean, lows climb up toward the middle. A stat we pay special attention to for fantasy purposes is touchdown frequency. TD rates can forecast which players are scoring too often, and which are due to find the end zone more in the coming weeks.
Players who have too few touches, they don’t have a large enough sample size, making their data “sus.” So much of this will focus on stars.
We always want to trade for a player right before they get hot. And a low TD rate can suggest a player is owed some touchdowns by the football gods. Jonathan Taylor is an anomaly who “high key” sticks out. He has dealt with some health issues and staying on the field, but he has just one TD this season despite 123 touches. If he performed at an average level, he would have seven more TDs, and 42 more fantasy points.
Even with bad QB play, if Taylor gets healthy and stays healthy, and he continues to get the type of volume he has in the past, there is no reason to think he can’t at least achieve scoring averages, which means his fantasy production is due for an uptick. Considering his health woes, now would be a good time to target him in trades while his value is “salty.”
Chris Godwin has net yet scored this season. APSimilarly, Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson have yet to score touchdowns this season, despite having at least 45 touches. Based on league averages — a TD every 15.8 touches for fantasy Flex options — both these dynamic receivers should have three scores by now.
If they had, instead of “cringe” WR47 and WR34 rankings, respectively, Godwin and Johnson would be WR30 and 29. And that’s if they were just “basic,” not “extra.”
Not all finds are going to be bargains. There are some performing well enough and with ample name recognition to make acquiring them expensive, but worth it — Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Tyreek Hill, Dameon Pierce and Rhamondre Stevenson. The numbers suggest even Joe Mixon (after his five-TD day!) and Christian McCaffrey score more ahead.
Now, this doesn’t work for everyone. We aren’t paying too much attention to low TD rates for players such as Devin Singletary and David Montgomery, since they often get “ghosted” at the goal line in favor of quarterback runs.
And with the good comes the bad, so be aware of some possible future fantasy “Karens” who might be a bit too TD-entitled at the moment — like Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Mecole Hardman and A.J. Brown.
If you want future fantasy “fire,” you need to find guys who are just “mid” right now. TD rates can be the “tea” that helps put together that “thicc” roster.
