When we approached the start of the 2023 MLB season, fantasy baseball players were instructed to pay close attention to the new rules being implemented, specifically as to how they would affect stolen bases.
After years of dramatic decline in steals (and understanding the value of dominating a category with such a premium), there has been a massive increase this season and MLB is on the verge of registering its highest totals since 2012.
Though stolen bases have become more abundant, their importance has not lessened. The steals category continues to be one of the most movable in roto league standings, and any chance you get to acquire someone with speed should be an opportunity taken.
Through the first two months of the regular season, we have seen an average of 45 stolen base attempts per team with an overall success rate of 79.2 percent — which gives us an average of roughly 35.4 steals per team.
The Rays’ Taylor Walls steals third base against the Dodgers.APAt this pace, we are looking at close to 3,200 stolen bases for the season, but with some teams being more aggressive than others and 13 teams posting success rates in excess of 80 percent, those numbers could grow to a level we haven’t seen since the MLB record was set at 3,585 back in 1987.
With that knowledge, it is time to take a look at your league’s standings in the stolen base category. Every league is inherently different, but in most cases, you will see one or two teams sitting atop the category, one or two at the bottom and the rest of the league separated by maybe 8-10 stolen bases on average. That means with the addition of just one strong base-stealer, you can vault up your league standings in a very short amount of time. Add two and you could find yourself in the top three of the category by the All-Star break.
The key is to focus your attention on the teams that are both aggressive on the bases and have a high success rate. The Rays and Pirates have the highest number of stolen base attempts, but the Athletics, Guardians and Orioles are not far behind. Each has a success rate of 82 percent or better.
The Diamondbacks’ Jake McCarthyGetty ImagesYou can try to trade for high-end players such as Wander Franco or Esteury Ruiz, but you may have more success seeking out low-key speedsters such as Taylor Walls or Ji Hwan Bae. If you have a surplus of power or pitching, start making some offers. If you lack a genuine surplus of another category or trading is too difficult, you still have a variety of options on your waiver wire.
The Diamondbacks are calling up outfielder Jake McCarthy, a player everyone drafted expecting a high stolen base count. He struggled early, but seemed to right the ship during his demotion to the minors and appears primed to see regular at-bats.
Arizona ranks 12th in stolen base attempts with a team success rate of 83.7 percent. Twins shortstop Royce Lewis is returning from injury soon, and though the Twins haven’t been too aggressive because they lack a true burner, the youngster flashed plenty of speed in the minors.
Though you never want to focus too heavily on just one category, paying close attention to stolen bases will be paramount to your success. Don’t just assume you will be fine because steals are so abundant. With so much potential movement in the steals category, teams that are paying attention will pass you by before you know it, and anyone who has played fantasy baseball knows, catching up is much more difficult than keeping pace.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to Fantasy-Alarm.com for all your fantasy baseball advice.
