Examining college football title games from betting perspective

VSiN’s college football expert offers up his betting angles for some featured games on the holiday weekend slate.

Big Ten Championship Game

No. 2 Michigan (-11, 44) vs. No. 15 Iowa

Both teams are thrilled to be here for different reasons, and this is not the matchup we thought we were getting. Still, it’s intriguing. For Michigan, which is now 10-2 ATS this year, everything is still in front of it. I am curious, as weird as it sounds given the stakes, if Michigan comes out flat given how much emotion went into that win over Ohio State. Whether Iowa can take advantage or not is another story. I really worry about the Hawkeyes’ offensive line in this game. While Tyler Linderbaum is a marvel at center, this team is not nearly as good at the tackles or guards. Against Michigan, that could be a problem. Iowa is just 2-4 against the spread in the past six, and the offense is going to have to find a way to manufacture points. Easier said than done.

Big 12 Championship Game

No. 5 Oklahoma State (-6, 47.5) vs. No. 9 Baylor

Round 1 of this game was excellent. Oklahoma State beat Baylor 24-14, covering the four-point spread. The Pokes’ defense, which has been so good this year, was certainly good in that game. Against Oklahoma in Bedlam, it wasn’t dominant although it still played well. Oklahoma State won 37-33, pushing on the spread. In what might have been a lookahead spot, Baylor barely got past Texas Tech as a 14.5-point favorite. It was only the fourth time this year that the Bears didn’t cover. As for this game, the importance is huge. Oklahoma State can make a strong push for the playoff with a win. Baylor can play spoiler. Even though it’s a rematch, it’s a doozy.

Pac-12 Championship Game

No. 14 Utah (-2, 59.5) vs. No. 10 Oregon

Speaking of rematches. The first time these two teams played, which was only a few weeks ago, it did not go well for Oregon. That’s probably being kind. The Ducks were clobbered as a three-point underdog, although that game took place on the road. This one will be played in Las Vegas, which should help Oregon a great deal. Also helping is Saturday’s win (and cover) against Oregon State. Utah fell well short of covering the 24-point spread, although it did handle Colorado. Two elements to watch in this game: Oregon’s rushing offense and Oregon’s rushing defense. That is where the last one went sideways. Something tells me that this, at a neutral site, will be far closer.

ACC Championship Game

No. 17 Pittsburgh (-3, 72) vs. No. 18 Wake Forest

It won’t decide a playoff spot, although you could make an argument that this will be the most compelling championship game played all weekend. The nation’s No. 3 and No. 4 scoring offenses will go toe-to-toe, and the total speaks to the kind of game we are likely to get. Wake Forest rebounded from its loss to Clemson with a blowout of Boston College as a six-point favorite. Pittsburgh covered the 12-point spread at Syracuse. Both teams have been largely good to gamblers this year; both, as mentioned, can also score points. The difference, however, is the defense. While Wake looked solid last week, the Demon Deacons still have the nation’s No. 91 ranked scoring D. I think the Over sounds rather tasty.

American Athletic Conference Championship Game

No. 3 Cincinnati (-12, 54.5) vs. No. 16 Houston

I absolutely love this game, and the stakes cannot be more defined. A win and Cincinnati is (likely) in the playoff. But Houston can battle and has this season.